#TradFi交易分享挑战

‍# US-Iran Negotiation Game
The latest chapter of "US-Iran War" titled "The Memo of Reconciliation Puzzle" is here, Iran claims that US-Iran negotiation representatives have reached an agreement on the understanding memo, pending approval from their respective governments. The draft agreement includes Iran clearing the Strait of Hormuz mines within 30 days, restoring commercial passage, the US gradually lifting maritime sanctions, and discussing sanctions exemptions and asset freezes. The White House denies that the draft text previously published by Iranian media is fictitious; news updates are changing rapidly. How should we position ourselves? Follow these points to lose less and make more money!

1. Do not oppose the trend; short at the highs rather than "taking a flying knife" to buy the dip

2. Reduce uncertain trades, lower trading frequency, and focus mainly on trend-following orders

3. Decrease position size, operate with light positions, and avoid going all-in impulsively

4. Diversify investments, hedge risks, and while trading Bitcoin, consider allocating to gold, crude oil, and US stocks to spread risk, but only within your capacity and energy levels.

5. Do not chase news-driven trades; keep an eye on the following signals:

✅ ‌Average daily traffic through the Strait of Hormuz‌: If it recovers to over 80% of pre-war levels for three consecutive days, crude oil may plummet;

✅ ‌US PCE Price Index‌: If core PCE exceeds expectations, gold may face short-term pressure, and Bitcoin could be more easily sold off;

✅ ‌CME Bitcoin futures open interest‌: If it continues to decline, it indicates institutional withdrawal; if it rises again, it signals new bullish entries;

✅ ‌Whether the Iranian Revolutionary Guard announces a “blockade of the Strait”‌: Once announced, gold and Bitcoin will decline simultaneously, with potential for larger breakdowns. $JNJ