#TradFi交易分享挑战 Major U.S. oil company warns: inventories are nearing depletion, oil prices likely to rise this summer

The Financial Times reported that on May 28, at a conference hosted by investment firm Bernstein, CEO of U.S. oil giant Chevron, Mike Wirth, warned that due to the Iran situation, crude oil inventories are continuously declining, and oil prices are highly likely to rise over the next two months. He believes that reserves serving as market buffers are being consumed at an increasing rate. Compared to the early stages of the Iran situation, the market's ability to absorb supply and demand imbalances has significantly weakened. Wirth inferred: "In the coming weeks, supply and demand pressures will be more directly transmitted to spot oil prices. After entering June, especially July, upward pressure on oil prices will further intensify." Wirth analyzed that multiple factors have prevented oil prices from reaching market expectations. For example, before the conflict erupted, crude oil inventories were high, and the U.S. subsequently released strategic petroleum reserves, coupled with Iran, Russia, Venezuela, and other countries still exporting crude oil. Wirth added that currently, various buffer inventories are nearing exhaustion. He proposed that this round of energy crisis will prompt governments to focus on establishing a "risk mitigation mechanism" by increasing crude oil reserves to withstand various shocks. "Policy makers must recognize that a new crisis could occur at any time. When to start replenishing inventories and how long to continue risk-watching will become difficult decisions for countries." Wirth also believes that the demand for replenishing reserves will further boost market demand, adding upward pressure on prices. He also mentioned that the destruction of oil and gas infrastructure in the Middle East is severe, with repair costs reaching hundreds of billions of dollars, which will continue to push oil prices higher. "If the current situation remains deadlocked for a long time, the global economy may slow down or even enter recession. Demand for crude oil will then decline, offsetting the price gains. This possibility cannot be ruled out," he added. Wirth's statement echoes the growing concerns among economists.
Some analysts say that even if both sides reach a ceasefire agreement, the impact of this conflict on energy prices will persist for months. Currently, the global crude oil market's daily supply has decreased by 12 to 13 million barrels. Besides Wirth, several other senior executives in the oil industry have recently issued warnings. Suhail Al Mazrouei, CEO of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), reminded on May 21 that even if the conflict is resolved, the Strait of Hormuz will likely not return to full crude oil transportation capacity before next year. He believes it will take at least four months for crude oil shipping capacity to recover to 80% of pre-conflict levels. And full resumption of navigation may not occur until the first or even second quarter of 2027. $XTIUSD