From Dow Theory, Chan Theory, Elliott Wave Theory, Volume-Price Relationship, Order Flow, and Price Action Analysis of BTC Short-term Trends

$BTC ‌1. Dow Theory (Dow Theory)
Main trend (1-hour level): The medium-term downtrend from the high point of 82,448 on May 10 is still ongoing. The high point of 78,002 on May 26 became an important turning point in this decline, after which the market entered a "stepwise plunge" mode. On May 27, from 76,022, it plunged to 74,114; on May 28, from 74,462, it crashed to 72,450, hitting a near 10-day low. On May 29, the movement was extremely dramatic—morning oscillation between 73,000–73,800, at 14:00 suddenly collapsing to 72,384, then at 15:00 a shocking V-shaped reversal, a massive bullish candle with volume of 1.97B surged from 72,875 to 74,084, continuing to push up to 74,222 at 17:00, but then retreated again to 73,310 at the close. The medium-term downtrend remains, but the downward momentum has weakened.
Short-term trend (15-minute level): The May 29 movement was a "roller coaster" with intense volatility. Morning short-term high from 73,817 (06:15) down to 73,726 (08:30), afternoon flash crash at 14:00 to 72,384, then V-shaped reversal to 74,222, and again retreat to 73,310 at the close. The short-term trend shifted from steep decline to intense oscillation, with fierce battle between bulls and bears.
Dow conclusion: The primary trend is downward, but the downward momentum is weakening, and the short-term trend has turned into intense oscillation. The V-shaped reversal on May 29 indicates strong buying support at low levels, but the retreat at the close shows selling pressure above remains heavy. The key resistance zone is 74,000–74,500; if the price can break through this zone effectively, the short-term downtrend may pause; if the rebound is blocked at 74,000 and falls below 72,384, the decline continues, targeting 71,000–72,000.
2. Chan Theory (缠论)
Structure of Fractals: On the 15-minute chart, multiple valid top and bottom fractals are marked.
Top fractals: Appear at 78,002 (May 26 14:15), 76,022 (May 27 12:00), 74,462 (May 28 00:00), 73,807 (May 28 21:30), 74,222 (May 29 17:30). These top fractals are densely appearing with price gradually decreasing, but the May 29 top fractal at 74,222 is close to the previous top at 74,462, indicating weakening bearish momentum.
Bottom fractals: Appear at 75,555 (May 26 22:45), 74,114 (May 27 23:00), 72,450 (May 28 14:00), 72,384 (May 29 14:00). These bottoms continue to decline, but the May 29 bottom at 72,384 is very close to the previous bottom at 72,450, possibly forming a double bottom.
Bi (Pen) and Line Segments: From the top fractal at 78,002 to the bottom at 75,555, a very strong downward stroke was formed, with a decline of about 2,447. Then from 75,555 bottom to 76,022 top, an upward stroke of about 467 was formed, very weak. From 76,022 top to 74,114 bottom, a downward stroke of about 1,908; from 74,114 bottom to 74,462 top, an upward stroke of about 348; from 74,462 top to 72,450 bottom, a downward stroke of about 2,012; from 72,450 bottom to 74,222 top, an upward stroke of about 1,772, with increased strength. Then from 74,222 top to 72,384 bottom, a downward stroke of about 1,838. Currently, starting from the 72,384 bottom, the price is constructing a new upward stroke, with the latest high at 73,310, an increase of about 926.
Central Zone: In the 75,500–76,500 range, a central zone was formed per Chan Theory but has been completely broken down. In the 74,000–75,000 range, a second downward central zone was formed but also broken. Currently, in the 72,800–74,000 range, the candlesticks are constructing a new oscillating central zone. The two lows at 72,450 and 72,384 are very close, possibly forming a double bottom.
Chan Theory conclusion: The downward strokes (-2,447, -1,908, -2,012, -1,838) remain strong, but the upward strokes (+467, +348, +1,772) have strengthened significantly, showing that bulls' support is clearly increasing. Currently, in the initial rebound after downward strokes, around 72,384, an effective bottom fractal may form. If a double bottom is confirmed, the downward strokes may end; if the price directly falls below 72,000, the downward extension risks are high, with potential to probe 70,000.
3. Elliott Wave Theory (波浪理论)
Based on the 1-hour wave structure, the movement since the high of 78,002 on May 26 is divided into waves:
Wave 1 (Crash): From 78,002 down to 75,555 (May 26 22:45), about -2,447. Panic selling phase, initial bearish wave.
Wave 2 (Weak rebound): From 75,555 slightly up to 76,022 (May 27 12:00), about +467. Rebound is about 19.1% of Wave 1 decline, showing weak bullish support.
Wave 3 (Main decline wave): From 76,022 down to 74,114 (May 27 23:00), about -1,908. Approximately 78% of Wave 1, the main driving wave.
Wave 4 (Minor rebound): From 74,114 up to 74,462 (May 28 00:00), about +348. Rebound is about 18.3% of Wave 3 decline.
Wave 5 (Extended decline): From 74,462 down to 72,450 (May 28 14:00), about -2,012. About 82% of Wave 1, completing the five-wave downward structure.
Wave A (V-shaped rebound): From 72,450 up to 74,222 (May 29 17:30), about +1,772. Rebound strength is about 88% of Wave 5 decline, significantly stronger than previous rebounds, indicating diminishing short-term downward momentum.
Wave B (Correction): From 74,222 down to 72,384 (May 29 14:00), about -1,838. Almost fully retracing Wave A, showing persistent overhead selling pressure.
Current (Wave C initial?): From 72,384 rebound to 73,310 (May 29 23:45), about +926. If this rebound continues to break above 74,222, Wave C rebound is confirmed, targeting 75,000–75,500.
Wave conclusion: The five-wave decline structure is complete, and the current is in an A-B-C correction wave. Wave A rebound (+1,772) is much stronger than previous rebounds, Wave B retraced almost all of Wave A, and Wave C may be in its initial stage. If Wave C breaks above Wave A high at 74,222, the rebound target is 75,000–75,500; if Wave C fails, the downtrend resumes, targeting 71,000–72,000.
4. Volume-Price Relationship (量价关系)
Overall volume-price features: On May 29, extremely extreme volume and price features appeared. Morning consolidation with low volume, a collapse phase with decreasing volume, and a V-shaped reversal with massive volume. Total volume for the day was 8.43B, lower than May 28’s 10.98B, but key nodes had highly concentrated volume.
Key volume-price nodes:

At 14:00 on May 29, a shrinking volume bearish candle appeared (volume near zero), crashing from 73,047 to 72,384, with a small body of -83, indicating liquidity exhaustion and a flash crash.

At 15:00, a massive bullish candle with volume of 1.97B appeared, surging from 72,875 to 74,084, with a body of 724 and a lower shadow of 491, showing huge buy support at low levels, forming a "bullish engulfing" pattern.

At 17:00, a volume-increasing bearish candle with volume of 1.64B, falling from 74,222 to 73,851, with a body of -100 and upper shadow of 371, indicating heavy selling pressure above 74,200, forming a "shooting star" bearish pattern.

At 18:00, a volume-increasing bearish candle with volume of 0.72B, crashing from 73,883 to 73,261, with a body of 622, confirming dominant selling pressure.

At 22:00, a volume-increasing bullish candle with volume of 1.75B, rebounding from 73,307 to 73,377, with a body of 70, showing buy support at low levels.
Recent 10x 15-minute candles: From 73,807 oscillating down to 73,310, with volume showing alternating shrinking and expanding, market waiting in the 73,200–73,500 zone for direction.
Volume-price conclusion: The V-shaped reversal phase saw massive volume (1.97B), indicating strong low-level support. But above 74,200, volume stagnated at 1.64B, showing persistent selling pressure. The current consolidation with decreasing volume suggests both bulls and bears are waiting for a breakout. If a rebound near 74,000 shows volume stagnation and then breaks above 74,000, it confirms bearish dominance; if the price falls below 72,384 with decreasing volume, flash crash risk diminishes.
5. Order Flow (订单流)
Volume Profile: The recent 4 days’ volume control point (POC) is at 73,367, the most traded area, forming the current key value zone. POC has dropped sharply from 75,827 on May 28 to 73,367, with current price at 73,310 close to POC, indicating a correction of market value disparity.
Current analysis: Price at 73,310 is just below POC by 57, within the value area (At Value). In order flow theory, returning to POC suggests short-term balance between bulls and bears. The current oscillation near POC, if stabilized above, may restore to higher value zones; if broken below, the risk of probing 72,000 increases.
High volume nodes (HVN):

77,059–77,191: Resistance HVN (completely broken, now resistance)

75,658–75,790: Mid resistance HVN (broken)

74,717–74,849: Core resistance HVN (high-volume zone at May 29 V-reversal high)

73,300–73,500: Current POC zone HVN (high-volume zone at May 29 close)

72,450–72,639: Support HVN (high-volume zone at May 28–29 crash lows)
Delta analysis: During the May 29 flash crash, Delta briefly turned negative, but during the 15:00 V-reversal, Delta surged positive (+200 million level), confirming active buying. At 17:00, Delta turned negative again (-100 million), indicating overhead selling pressure. At 22:00, Delta turned positive (+50 million), showing buying support resumed. Currently, Delta MA12 has recovered from deep negative to near zero, indicating buying support is returning, and bulls and bears are balancing.
Order flow conclusion: Price near POC 73,367, short-term bulls and bears are balanced. Resistance at 74,000 and 74,500 HVNs, support at 72,450 HVN. If Delta remains positive near 73,300 and volume breaks above 74,000, it may restore above 74,500; if Delta turns negative again and price drops below 72,384, the risk of a plunge to 71,000 is high.
6. Price Action (价格行为)
Support and Resistance levels:

Strong resistance: 82,448 (phase high), 78,002 (May 26 high), 76,022 (May 27 rebound high)

Key resistance: 74,500 (May 29 V-reversal zone), 74,222 (May 29 high), 74,000 (psychological and round number resistance)

Key support: 73,300 (current POC zone), 72,450 (May 28 low), 72,384 (May 29 flash crash low, recent low), 72,000 (round number), 71,000 (psychological level)
Candlestick patterns:

At 14:00 on May 29, a bearish candle with long lower shadow appeared (-83 body, 698 lower shadow), crashing from 73,047 to 72,384, indicating panic selling after liquidity exhaustion, but with buy support below.

At 15:00, a bullish candle with an ultra-long lower shadow and massive volume (body 724, lower shadow 491), surging from 72,875 to 74,084, showing strong buy support at low levels, forming a "bullish engulfing" pattern.

At 17:00, a bearish candle with an ultra-long upper shadow (body -100, upper shadow 371), near 74,222, indicating heavy overhead selling pressure, forming a "shooting star" bearish pattern.

At 22:00, a bullish candle with high volume, with buy support at low levels, indicating a weak bullish attempt.
Trend structure:

Short-term: Transition from steep decline channel to wide-range oscillation zone (72,384–74,222)

Mid-term: The downtrend since May 22 at 77,829 is still ongoing, but the decline slope has slowed.
Price action conclusion: The short-term is in the lower part of a wide oscillation zone, between support at 74,000 and the POC. 74,000 is the dividing line: a breakout suggests a pause in the downtrend with targets at 74,500; rejection at resistance tests support at 72,450–72,384.
Overall assessment:
Dow Theory indicates the main trend is downward with weakening momentum, short-term trend is highly volatile, key levels are 74,000–74,500 (up) and 72,384 (down). Chan Theory shows downward strokes remain strong, but upward strokes have strengthened significantly, possibly forming a double bottom at 72,450 and 72,384. Elliott Wave suggests the five-wave decline is complete, currently in an A-B-C correction wave, with Wave A rebound (+1,772) stronger than previous, Wave B retraced almost all of Wave A, and Wave C possibly in its initial stage. Volume-price signals show a V-shaped reversal with massive volume (1.97B) and support at low levels, but volume stagnation above 74,200. Order flow shows POC has moved down to 73,367, price near POC, with Delta MA12 recovering from negative to near zero, indicating balanced support. Price action shows "bullish engulfing," "shooting star," and "double bottom" patterns, with short-term oscillation leaning bearish but with weakening downward momentum.
Short-term strategy suggestions:

Bullish scenario: If price stabilizes around 72,450–72,639 with decreasing volume, forming a double bottom, and Delta turns positive, consider small long positions targeting 74,000 → 74,500, with stop-loss at 71,800.

Bearish scenario: If rebound near 74,000–74,500 forms a top fractal with increasing volume and fails, confirming Wave C failure, consider short positions targeting 72,000 → 71,000, with stop-loss at 74,800.
Current state: Price at 73,310 is near POC in a consolidation zone, with short-term bulls and bears balanced. Wait for a confirmed breakout above 74,000 for longs or a breakdown below 72,384 for shorts. In the 72,384–74,000 range, it’s advisable to stay on the sidelines.