Recently, I've seen people talk about "on-chain coincidence transfers" again.

It looks like a casual click, but if you break down the path, most can be explained: first, an aggregator/router splits the order, then it passes through an intermediary wallet, and finally it goes into a CEX or a contract address for hedging.
If you only focus on A->B, it seems like mysticism; tracing through the intermediate hops and filling in the gaps, it basically shifts from "conspiracy theory" to "someone saving on gas/avoiding slippage/trying to get priority."
Of course, there are genuine anomalies, like the same address batch always managing to trade ahead of you—that smells very much like MEV...
I'm currently a bit cautious; when I see this, I prefer not to follow the trade.
By the way, recently people have been using ETF capital flows and US stock risk appetite to explain crypto price movements.
I also look at that, but honestly, these small on-chain maneuvers are more about "local micro-battles," so don’t just attribute everything to macro narratives.
That’s it for now. I’m going to trace that "coincidental" transaction from entry to execution and draw out the path.