45% chance of staying put, 35% of raising interest rates, and expectations of rate cuts being completely pushed out — this probability distribution itself reveals the issue.

ME News report, May 29 (UTC+8): T. Rowe Price Chief U.S. Economist Blerina Uruci said that the market may still be underestimating the likelihood of the Federal Reserve further tightening its policy. Uruci noted in the report that since early May, the Iran conflict has lasted longer than expected, oil prices have risen, and U.S. economic growth has remained resilient. While the Federal Reserve can ignore temporary energy shocks, persistent pressure from oil and import prices may affect inflation expectations, wage dynamics, and corporate pricing behavior. Uruci shifted her main view to the federal funds rate remaining unchanged over the next 12 months. She believes the probability of rates staying steady is 45%, the probability of rate hikes by the end of the year or in early 2027 is 35%, and the probability of rate cuts is