**5/29 Closing Data**:

- **Spot Gold** $4,534/oz (+0.86%), continuing the overnight V-shaped reversal momentum, with a peak reaching $4,540+ during the session
- **COMEX Gold Futures** $4,531/oz (+1.31%), at one point surged to $4,540
- **Domestic AU9999** 985 RMB/gram (+2.41%), Shanghai Gold main contract 989.4 RMB/gram (+2.17%)
- **Brand Gold Jewelry** Chow Tai Fook / Lao Fengxiang 1,365 RMB/gram (raised by 12–17 RMB from yesterday)
- **Silver** $76/oz (+1.86%)

**Today’s Trend Core**: The “unexpected positive surprise” from the PCE month-over-month at 0.2% continues to take effect, combined with the Q1 GDP downgrade to a 1.6% stagflation signal. Both the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields have weakened at the same time, and gold keeps strengthening. The 200-day moving average at $4,541 is the key battleground today—touched during the session but unable to hold, marking the watershed between the medium-term bull and bear markets.

**Latest on the U.S.-Iran Situation**: A 60-day ceasefire framework has been reached, but Trump “needs a few days to consider.” Treasury Secretary Beisente drew a red line, saying he “will not accept a bad deal.” Sanctions relief depends entirely on the extent of Iran’s nuclear concessions. Iran has not yet formally confirmed. Insiders say Iran has not agreed to any memorandum of understanding. There are still uncertainties in the agreement.

**Morning Report Reassessment**:

| Morning Report Judgment | Result |
|-----------|------|
| $4,450–$4,550 Slightly Bullish Range-Bound Volatility | ⚠️ Session high of $4,540, slightly breaking above the upper limit, overall direction correct |
| The 200-day moving average at $4,541 is the bull-bear dividing line | ✅ Precisely tested this level during the session, but failed to effectively hold above it, resistance confirmed |
| Progress in the U.S.-Iran situation is the key variable | ✅ Negotiation progress dominated the market’s sentiment tempo |
| Medium-term structural bullishness remains unchanged | ✅ Stagflation signals strengthened the medium-term logic |

**Key Judgment**: The 200-day moving average at $4,541 was touched today but not reclaimed—meaning the current move is still a “rebound,” not a “reversal.” Whether it can effectively break through this level next week will determine whether gold continues rebounding to $4,600+ or pulls back to $4,450 and even $4,380. Over the weekend, keep an eye on Trump’s final position on the U.S.-Iran deal—if signed, geopolitical premium fades (short-term negative); if not signed, safe-haven returns (short-term positive). But the medium-term stagflation logic provides real, solid support for gold.

🪨 Two days of V-shaped reversal, $4,366 → $4,540, a rebound of $174. The strength is not weak, but the mountain of the 200-day moving average has not yet been crossed. The real test will be the opening next Monday.