#Polymarket每日热点

Let’s talk about my view on the June Federal Reserve interest rate decision. I don’t think the probability of a rate hike is high; most likely, the Fed will keep the interest rate unchanged.

Although CME data shows the probability of a rate hike within the year is nearing 70%, market expectations often swing back and forth as the data changes. At present, U.S. economic data is still relatively stable overall. While inflation has seen some ups and downs, there are no signs that it is getting out of control, which gives the Fed sufficient room to stand by and observe. Although the new chair, Wosh, is more hawkish, it’s unlikely that he will make a major turnaround right after taking office. More likely, he will continue the cautious pace from the Powell era—prioritizing data observation before taking action.

I believe that in June, the Federal Reserve is more likely to stay put, continue maintaining the current interest rate level, and avoid excessive tightening that could bring unnecessary shocks to the market.