#WTI原油失守90美元 Regarding WTI crude oil falling below $90 on May 28, the White House denied that the market had amplified risks after the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, instead focusing on the suppressive effect of high interest rates on demand—this phenomenon reflects that the current core driver of oil prices has shifted from geopolitical premiums to macroeconomic and supply-demand battles.

Follow-up development of the U.S.-Iran situation: Although there are claims of "consensus" at the negotiation level, the White House's urgent denial indicates that there are still significant disagreements on key issues such as sanctions removal and ceasefire scope. The probability of reaching an official agreement in the short term is low, and the Middle East situation is likely to continue the deadlock of "fighting while negotiating." Even if an agreement is reached in the future, restoring supply will take several months, so geopolitical risk premiums will not completely dissipate, but short-term impulsive impacts will diminish.

Short-term oil price trend: Persistently high interest rates continue to suppress demand from European and American manufacturing sectors, combined with weak refinery activity in China, which indeed puts pressure on macro demand. However, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories have fallen to near five-year lows, and the peak travel season in summer is approaching, with low inventories providing solid support for oil prices. Overall, the short-term downside space for oil prices in the $85-90 range is limited, and the subsequent trend is likely to show an initial decline followed by stabilization and gradual rebound, with the core volatility range for WTI at $87-$93 per barrel. In trading, focus on support levels around $85-$87.