Bitcoin is currently in a polarized state of long-term optimism and short-term selling pressure, with the price struggling to rise mainly because short-term funds are on the defensive. The key factors to watch are whether the US-Iran conflict can be eased and whether US inflation improves.

1. Price heavily influenced by geopolitical factors
Bitcoin has recently fluctuated between over $70k and $80k. As May is about to end, many expected it to fall below $60k, but that has not happened. The future trend largely depends on the US-Iran conflict; if an agreement is reached and tensions ease, it will be positive for Bitcoin.
2. Long-term holders continue to increase
On-chain data shows that the number of long-term Bitcoin holders is growing. At the current rate, by June, it is likely to exceed 15 million coins, accounting for about 75% of the total supply. These holders are less sensitive to price fluctuations; the more it drops, the less willing they are to sell. They have strong confidence in Bitcoin’s future, and recently, they have accumulated about 80k more coins.
3. Exchange-held coins are increasing, polarization is evident
Although long-term holdings are rising, the amount of Bitcoin on exchanges has increased by nearly 50k coins compared to a month ago. This indicates some short-term funds are transferring coins to exchanges, preparing to sell at any time or hedge. This results in a situation where long-term funds are locked in, and short-term funds are on the defensive. When liquidity is poor, Bitcoin becomes especially sensitive to US economic and political events, while US stocks are supported by AI and tech stocks, leading many short-term traders to shift to trading US equities.
In summary, long-term confidence is building, but short-term selling pressure remains. The market needs clear positive news to truly rebound.