#Polymarket每日热点

As the Federal Reserve enters the "Wash" era, whether it will bring its hawkish stance into the Fed becomes a focal point, and the June policy meeting will be his first "big test." Regarding the Fed's decision in June, I bet on "no change." The rationale is as follows:

1. Inflation pressures have significantly eased marginally, with core PCE data signaling a "pause"‌

Although the core PCE year-over-year increase in Q1 2026 was 2.8%, slightly above expectations, the latest May month-over-month data was only 0.4%, unchanged from the previous period, and well below the level of the same period in 2025. This trend indicates that, while inflation remains sticky, it has shifted from "surging across the board" to "structural easing." Service sector prices are still high, but the momentum of increases in core components like housing and healthcare is weakening, and wage growth is also slowing—April's average hourly earnings rose only 0.2% month-over-month, below the expected 0.3%. Fed Chair Powell emphasized the "data dependence" principle in his inaugural speech, rather than a preset path, and current data has met the threshold for "no further tightening."

2. The labor market has shifted from "strong in quantity" to "weak in quality," and the risk of a wage-inflation spiral is diminishing‌

While non-farm payrolls added 115k jobs in April, exceeding expectations, the broad unemployment rate rose to 8.2%, the highest in nearly three years, reflecting more people being forced into part-time or marginal employment. Meanwhile, manufacturing and information services sectors continue to cut jobs, with the effects of AI substitution accelerating. The labor market is transitioning from "supply shortages" to "structural excess," with companies less willing to hire and bargaining power for wages declining. Fed Governor Waller publicly stated in May: "Before inflation persistently falls back to the 2% target, we should not raise interest rates but observe." This stance indicates a shift in the mainstream consensus within the FOMC.

3. Markets have pre-priced "no rate hike," and policy actions are fully aligned with expectations‌

CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in June plummeted from 70% in early May to 0.1%, reflecting traders' deep digestion of economic data and policy signals. This reversal in expectations is not speculative but a rational reassessment by institutional investors based on authoritative data. The Fed has always valued market expectation stability; if it suddenly raises rates when the market has fully priced in "no change," it would severely damage its credibility. Therefore, maintaining rates unchanged is an inevitable move for the Fed to uphold policy credibility.

4. Financial conditions have already tightened in advance, requiring no additional policy tools‌

Although the latest value of the Financial Conditions Index (FCI) has not been directly released, multiple indicators suggest the market has already experienced "non-policy tightening"‌:

- The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains above 4.3%;

- The dollar index stays high in the 98–99 range;

- Corporate credit spreads have widened, and financing costs for small and medium-sized enterprises have increased.

These rises in non-policy interest rates are equivalent to a covert rate hike. The Fed does not need to use further policy rate tools; "the market has already completed the tightening for the Fed"‌.

Additionally, developments in the Iran-U.S. conflict are also important factors influencing market expectations of Fed rate hikes. If tensions escalate again, oil prices will rise, and expectations for a rate hike will increase. Therefore, my betting strategy is that, in the event of renewed conflict between Iran and the U.S., with a higher probability of rate hikes, I will heavily bet on "no rate change" to maximize gains. $MU #TradFi交易分享挑战