#Polymarket每日热点

The inflation caused by high oil prices has led to calls for interest rate hikes in the United States, but the latest data, policy signals, and market expectations have fully shifted toward "keeping rates unchanged." For the Federal Reserve's decision in June, I also bet on "no change in interest rates."

First is the "culprit" of this rate hike—the inflation expectations driven by high oil prices caused by the U.S.-Iran war. Signs of easing are now visible. Today, U.S. Vice President Pence stated, "Negotiators from the U.S. and Iran have reached a preliminary consensus to extend the ceasefire by 60 days and to start negotiations on Iran's nuclear issue, but it still requires approval from President Trump." Hope for peace appears. Once the Strait of Hormuz resumes navigation, oil prices are bound to plummet, and inflation will be alleviated. Based on this, the Federal Reserve may adopt a wait-and-see approach in June and not rush to raise interest rates.

Second, the labor market has shifted from "strong in quantity" to "weak in quality," and the risk of a wage-inflation spiral is diminishing. Although non-farm payrolls added 115k jobs in April, exceeding expectations, the broad unemployment rate rose to 8.2%, a three-year high, reflecting that more people are being forced into part-time or marginal employment. Meanwhile, manufacturing and information services continue to lay off workers, and the AI substitution effect is accelerating. The labor market is transitioning from "supply shortages" to "structural excess," with companies less willing to hire and bargaining power for wages declining. Fed Governor Waller publicly stated in May, "Until inflation persistently falls back to the 2% target, we should not raise rates but observe." This stance indicates a shift in the mainstream consensus within the FOMC.

Therefore, overall, I believe the Fed's decision in June will be "unchanged," and my betting strategy is to heavily allocate in favor of that.