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1. Surface calm, undercurrents run deep

Price fluctuations are minimal, +0.38%, almost like sleeping. But don’t be fooled.

The real panic is elsewhere—ETF net outflows for nine consecutive days, $2.8 billion fleeing. What does this mean? Institutions are quietly retreating, no fanfare, just less each day.

What’s more heartbreaking—is that US stocks are hitting new highs, while Bitcoin is getting hammered. Previously, Bitcoin was called "high beta tech stock," but now that logic no longer holds. It’s decoupling—but not in a good way.

2. News sentiment: faith is loosening

The biggest shocker is Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy).

Five years of "never sell." But just recently—transferred 411 BTC to Coinbase. Not a lot of money—about $30 million, only 0.05% of their holdings. But the key is the attitude change. The CEO personally said, "not ruling out selling a little"—these words from them are more frightening than any technical signals.

At the same time, miners are also sending coins to exchanges, transferring 21k BTC in one go on May 18. Although the price hasn’t collapsed, supply-side is quietly loosening.

3. Macro factors are also adding fuel

Conflict has reignited in the Middle East. US and Iran clashing in the Strait of Hormuz. What’s the first reaction from capital? Run.

US Treasury yields soared above 5.2%, risk-free returns are right there—who still wants to hold volatile Bitcoin to gamble on ups and downs? Institutions’ choice is simple: withdraw first, wait for stability.

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4. Risks: How much more can it fall?

Data speaks—

If BTC drops below $69,961, the total liquidation of longs across the network will reach $21k. That is, if the 70,000 level can’t hold, the liquidations below will cascade like dominoes.

On the technical side, $71,400 is the first line of defense, $70,000 is a psychological barrier. If it breaks 70,000, the real support is around $66,000.

5. The only trump card

Don’t panic—it's not all bad.

Long-term holders still hold 84.3% of the circulating supply. These folks are the true "unbreakable" force. As long as they don’t sell, Bitcoin’s bottom remains intact.

Plus, the CLARITY bill is still in progress; the Senate has already passed it, with a market probability of 62%-66%. If it passes, ETF funds could flow back $4-8 billion. This is currently overshadowed by panic, but it hasn’t disappeared.

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Specific strategies: what to do now?

Short entry points

· Entry: buy short in batches between $73,500 - $74,500
· Stop-loss: $75,200 (must exit if broken)
· Position size: 2-3%, light position for trial

Long entry points (wait, don’t rush)

· Entry: buy long in batches between $69,500 - $70,500
· Stop-loss: below $69,000
· Position size: same 2-3%

Spot trading ideas

· For those holding positions: hold as long as 70,000 holds, reduce if broken
· For bottom-fishing: wait until below 68,000 to consider, it’s still early

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One last question for you

Do you still hold spot positions—or have you already switched everything to USDT to watch the show?

👇 Drop a comment, check in. #成长值抽奖赢金条 $BTC

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