Inflation is the top risk in the current economy, with the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates this year exceeding 50%.

On Thursday, John Waldron, President and Chief Operating Officer of Goldman Sachs, directly stated at the Bernstein Strategic Decision Conference in New York that inflation has become the single biggest risk facing the economy.

He further warned that if global long-term interest rates continue to rise, it will increase the cost of social capital worldwide, suppress consumer spending, and have widespread impacts on the economy.

According to data from Investing.com, the April PCE Price Index annual rate released this Thursday was 3.8%, the highest level since June 2023, far exceeding the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target.

As a result, market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy have also shifted. According to CME FedWatch data, market pricing now shows a 51.6% chance of a rate hike this year, surpassing the 37.9% chance of holding rates steady.

Industry analysts pointed out that the main reason for the increased stickiness of current inflation is that the infrastructure boom driven by AI is less sensitive to interest rates compared to auto loans and mortgages, making it difficult for high interest rate policies to effectively curb inflation demand.

Overall, although Waldron remains highly vigilant about inflation, the current economy has not shown signs of spiraling out of control. Specifically, consumer spending remains strong, the labor market is robust, corporate financing is active, and there are no signs of weakening consumption or deteriorating employment.

#经济风险 # Financial Markets