A sudden inspiration in the gym, the relationship between weather forecasting and Bitcoin prediction: returning to our trader's "Dao." Weather forecasts and the financial markets we face are so similar in their underlying logic, yet so different. The key distinction lies in:

1. The "human" changes in the market:
Weather is a "pure physical" system, with its fundamental laws being the sun and air currents. The stock market and Bitcoin market, on the other hand, are also complex "human and game theory" systems. Human "greed, anger, ignorance" do not follow fixed equations, and macroeconomic environments are not as predictable as the sun rising on time; their dominant directions can even be influenced by humans (like the Federal Reserve). Because of this, predicting the U.S. stock or financial markets is more difficult than predicting the weather, as their underlying laws are rooted in human nature and strategic interactions.
2. The enlightenment of "attractors" and our Dao:
In chaotic systems, there is something called "attractors," which cause a seemingly unpredictable system to operate within a certain range at a specific time. For example, although we don't know the exact temperature in Guangzhou a month from now, we know whether to wear short sleeves or long sleeves. This is what investment masters seek—the "moat" and "competitive advantage," rather than precisely predicting stock prices. The greatest charm of this market is its uncertainty, and what we need to do is find fuzzy correctness within that uncertainty. [微笑]