Today I saw that kind of “coincidental transfer” again: A sends to B, and two minutes later C also sends to B—the comment section immediately launches into conspiracy theories. So I went ahead and broke down the path: first, check whether it’s the same entry point (the traces left by the same router/aggregator look very similar), then see whether there’s a currency-exchange hop in the middle and whether there’s the same source of funds being split, and finally check whether the same batch of contracts is collecting fees. A lot of the time, it’s not really “collusion”—it’s just that everyone happens to take the same easiest route, and the time windows happen to overlap.

Recently, expectations of rate cuts have been swinging between hot and cold. People also argue about the U.S. dollar index and risk assets rising and falling together—I’m honestly more concerned about on-chain things that *look like coincidences* being led astray by emotions. A reminder: don’t just stare at whether the outcome looks right or not; explain each step clearly before you draw conclusions, or the sandwich attack will slip in and take advantage of the opening.