The new Federal Reserve Chair just took office and wants to "crash the inflation"? The June rate hike script might be more aggressive than the market expects!

After Kevin Wirth officially took the position of Fed Chair, the atmosphere on Wall Street instantly changed.
Previously, the market was daydreaming about "cutting rates within the year"; now, traders are directly discussing:
"Will they continue to raise rates?"
CME "FedWatch" data shows that the probability of another rate hike within the year once approached 70%.
Many retail investors were instantly confused:
Haven't they been saying the US economy is about to fail? Why is it suddenly hawkish again?
The answer is actually simple—Wirth is not Powell.
Powell is more of a "data-watching, hesitant type"; Wirth is more like a "post-traumatic inflation patient."
What does that mean?
It means he has a very high fear of inflation.
Because the most awkward thing about the US right now is:
The economy is slowing down, but inflation just refuses to die.
Service prices are high, wage stickiness is strong, and rents haven't really come down.
What does the Fed fear most?
It's like in the 1970s:
Relax too much, and inflation will take off again.
So Wirth's core logic after taking office is very clear:
Better to have a difficult economy than to let inflation revive.
This means that the June meeting is very likely not to cut rates, and may even send a more hawkish signal.
My personal judgment:
The most likely outcome in June is—hold steady, but speak hawkishly.
Simply put:
Rates stay unchanged, but continue to scare the market with words.
Because the US financial markets are now too good at "self-hype."
Stocks rise, AI frenzy, crypto surges, real estate doesn’t crash— and the Fed sees:
"Do you think high interest rates no longer feel real?"
So Wirth is very likely to use speeches to suppress risk asset sentiment again.
Especially the Nasdaq.
Now, the AI concept is starting to resemble the internet bubble of the past, and the Fed wouldn’t want financial conditions to loosen excessively again.
But why not just raise rates directly?
Because the economy has indeed started to cool down.
Consumption is weaker than before, credit card default rates are rising, and corporate financing pressures are increasing.
So what does the Fed look like now?
Like a security guard holding a spiked club, but not in great shape himself.
Want to continue fighting inflation, but afraid of really crashing the economy.
Therefore, the most realistic script for June is actually:
"Hawkish pause."
Appear to do nothing on the surface, but continue to scare.
And the real danger point for the market is:
Many funds haven't fully believed that "high interest rates will last longer."
If Wirth continues to hawk, global asset valuations could be compressed again.
At that point, the worst might not be US stocks, but those high-risk assets that have already celebrated prematurely. #Polymarket每日热点