June's no-rate-cutting stance is no longer the focus! The real danger is that Waller might be "hawkish until the end of the year"

Previously, the market's biggest concern was:
"When will the rate cut happen?"
Now everyone is starting to ask:
"Could there be another rate hike?"
How absurd is this change?
It's like you thought the teacher was about to dismiss class, but suddenly the teacher pulls out a set of practice exams.
And the central figure behind all this is Kevin Waller.
Since Waller took the stage, the entire Federal Reserve's style has clearly shifted to hawkish.
Because he is very clear:
The biggest risk now isn't a slower economy, but a resurgence of inflation.
Especially since the US labor market hasn't truly collapsed yet.
Wages remain resilient, and service sector prices are still high, meaning inflationary pressures haven't been fully relieved.
So the most likely scenario at the June meeting is:
Interest rates remain unchanged, but the language becomes more aggressive.
For example, continuing to emphasize:
* Inflation is still elevated
* Further action cannot be ruled out
* Maintaining restrictive rates for the long term
Translating these words means:
"Don't expect an easy profit this year."
And the most dangerous part of the market now is:
Many people are still immersed in the "AI bull market."
The Nasdaq is soaring like a rocket, and the crypto market is starting to stir again. The Fed looks at this and thinks:
"Are financial conditions too loose again?"
So Waller is very likely to re-throw cold water on the market with hawkish remarks.
Because in the Fed's view:
Assets rising too quickly can itself stimulate inflation.
So don't think that "no rate hike" is a good thing.
Sometimes, one statement can be more frightening than a rate hike.
Personally, I believe:
The real focus in June isn't the rate decision, but Waller's first full release of his policy style.
If he continues to be hawkish, global markets will reprice.
At that point:
* US Treasury yields may stay high
* The dollar may strengthen
* Gold may come under pressure
* Tech stocks may become more volatile
Especially high-valuation assets will start to feel the pressure.
Because the biggest feature of a high-interest-rate era is:
Money is no longer free. #Polymarket每日热点