According to the latest data from CME "FedWatch," the probability of the Fed holding rates steady in June is as high as 99.4%, with only a 0.6% chance of a 25 basis point hike. This indicates that holding steady in June is a certainty. However, the market's real focus has shifted to the forward path: the probability of the Fed maintaining rates in July has dropped to 93%, with the chance of a rate hike rising to 6.9%; by December, the probability of at least one rate increase before the end of the year is nearly 50%.

The core reason for this expectation reversal is the policy stance shift brought by Warsh. Known for his hawkish position, the market fears he may push for a more aggressive tightening path than his predecessor. Meanwhile, the just-released April core PCE price index rose 3.3% year-over-year, hitting a nearly two-and-a-half-year high, and Q1 GDP growth was revised down from 2.0% to 1.6%. Persistent inflation combined with economic cooling objectively demands the Fed to maintain a tightening bias.

This hawkish stance is reshaping the market landscape. Overseas investors sold large amounts of U.S. Treasuries in May, yet the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit record highs against the trend. This divergence in stock and bond performance clearly indicates that the market is facing a "stagflation-like" dilemma—weakening economic vitality coexisting with stubborn inflation, leaving limited room for monetary policy maneuvering.

Overall, the key focus of the June meeting is no longer the decision itself but how the Fed will communicate its tightening signals to the market: will it significantly raise its inflation expectations for the end of the year, or will it clearly tilt toward rate hikes? Whatever the approach, the policy tightening direction of the "Warsh era" has become irreversible.

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Fed Decision in June?

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FatYa8882026-05-29 04:18:20

#Polymarket每日热点 Kevin Wirth officially takes over the Federal Reserve, and market bets on policy tightening have been significantly strengthened. As for the June policy meeting, market consensus is highly clear: it is almost certain that the Fed will hold steady, but rate hikes are only a matter of time.

According to the latest data from CME “FedWatch,” the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged in June is as high as 99.4%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point hike is only 0.6%. This indicates that holding steady in June is essentially a done deal. However, the market’s real focus has shifted to the forward path: the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged through July has fallen to 93%, and the probability of a rate hike has risen to 6.9%; by December, the probability of at least one rate hike before year-end is approaching 50%.

The core of this expectation reversal lies in a shift in the policy stance brought by Wirth. Wirth is known for a hawkish stance, and the market worries that he may push a more aggressive tightening path than his predecessor. Meanwhile, the just-released April core PCE price index rose 3.3% year over year, reaching the highest level in nearly two and a half years, and Q1 GDP growth was revised down from 2.0% to 1.6%. With inflation staying hot and the economy cooling at the same time, it objectively calls for the Federal Reserve to maintain a tightening bias.

This hawkish stance is reshaping the market landscape. Overseas investors sold a large amount of U.S. Treasuries in May, yet the S&P 500 and Nasdaq nevertheless hit record highs against the trend. This divergence in stock and bond performance clearly shows that the market is confronting a “stagflation”-type dilemma—weakening economic momentum coexisting with stubborn inflation, leaving extremely limited room for maneuver for monetary policy.

Overall, the key focus of the June meeting is no longer the decision itself, but how the Federal Reserve will transmit tightening signals to the market: will it substantially raise year-end inflation expectations, or will it clearly tilt toward rate hikes? No matter which approach is taken, the policy direction toward tightening in the “Wirth era” has become irreversible.

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