June interest rate cuts? Stop dreaming! Waller might be brewing a "long-lasting high interest rate battle"

If Powell's era is "fighting while soothing," then Waller's era is more like:
"Go all out first, then talk."
The biggest recent market change is starting to believe again:
High interest rates may last longer.
Why?
Because inflation is too stubborn.
Although the U.S. economy is slowing down, employment remains strong, and wages are still high.
This means consumers still have spending power.
And as long as consumption continues, inflation will be hard to fully subside.
So Waller's core logic after taking office is very clear:
No premature easing.
Therefore, in June I believe:
The highest probability is to stay put.
But don’t think this is good news.
Because the real key is:
The wording.
If Waller continues to emphasize:
* Inflation risks
* Data dependence
* Long-term restrictive interest rates
The market will re-realize:
“The rate cut dream may be delayed.”
This will directly affect global assets.
Especially:
* U.S. stocks
* Gold
* Cryptocurrencies
* Emerging markets
Because in the past few years, everyone has gotten used to "cheap money."
Now, with high interest rates lasting long, it’s like the capital market has entered a "weaning period."
Many assets that could previously tell crazy stories will find it increasingly difficult to raise funds in the future.
And Waller's biggest characteristic is:
He doesn't care much about market sentiment.
So in the coming months, the Federal Reserve might enter a new state:
Before the economy fully deteriorates, they won't ease easily.
This means:
Global market volatility may not be over yet.
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