Oil prices have fallen, but why are gas stations still not cheap? The crude oil market is currently playing out a "massive bipolar disorder"!

After WTI dropped below $90, many netizens' first reaction was:
"Finally, I can fill up cheaply?"
But when they got to the gas station—still expensive.
Why?
Because the crude oil market is now especially fragmented.
Financial markets are trading on "deteriorating demand," while the real world is still facing "tight supply."
This leads to:
Futures prices falling first, with the physical prices lagging behind.
The biggest logical change in the market now is:
Middle Eastern risk is no longer the only main storyline.
Capital has realized that both the U.S. and Iran are actually controlling the situation.
The U.S. doesn't want oil prices to skyrocket, and Iran doesn't want a complete break, so both sides are in a "talking and arguing" mode.
This means:
The probability of a full-scale conflict has decreased.
As a result, oil prices are starting to unwind geopolitical premiums.
But at the same time, high interest rates are aggressively suppressing the economy.
U.S. consumers are already overwhelmed by mortgage, credit card, and auto loan payments.
So:
* Driving less
* Traveling less
* Downgrading consumption
Crude oil demand naturally faces pressure.
But the problem is:
Inventories are still low.
OPEC+ has not stopped production cuts, and U.S. strategic reserves are not high either. If supply disruptions occur, oil prices could rebound at any time.
So now, crude oil is very much like:
Someone who talks about losing weight but has a fridge full of snacks.
It looks like it wants to fall, but in reality, it can't move downward.
In the short term, I believe:
$90 remains a key battleground.
If the U.S. economy continues to weaken, oil prices may continue to decline.
But if expectations of rate cuts, a weaker dollar, and falling inventories emerge, market sentiment could reverse instantly.
The biggest characteristic of crude oil is:
It will never give most people a comfortable profit opportunity.
When everyone thinks "it will definitely fall," the rebound is often not far off. #WTI原油失守90美元