Is Iran suddenly losing its edge? Behind the plunge in oil prices, capital finally understands the Middle Eastern script!

Recently, the crude oil market has been like a soap opera.
The first few episodes were about "The Middle East War About to Break Out," but the latest episode suddenly turned into "Sit Down and Talk Slowly."
After WTI fell below $90, many people's first reaction was: Is the geopolitical risk gone?
Wrong.
It's not that the risk is gone, but that capital has realized—nobody really wants a real fight.
What is the US most afraid of now?
Not Iran, but inflation.
Biden's team is now getting nervous from high oil prices. Oil prices rise, and American consumers start complaining at the pump;
Complaints at the pump make the polls look dangerous.
And Iran?
They also don’t want a real confrontation.
After all, Iran's economy is under huge pressure now, and what they need most is to sell oil to recover, not daily military clashes.
So the market is starting to form a consensus:
Both sides keep issuing tough talk, but in reality, they are looking for a way out.
This is also why, after the White House denied the memorandum, oil prices surprisingly didn't spike.
Because capital has already "spoiled" the ending in advance.
The biggest contradiction in crude oil now isn’t in the Middle East, but in the US economy.
High interest rates are aggressively suppressing demand.
US credit card default rates are rising, consumption is cooling down, and the airline and manufacturing sectors are showing signs of fatigue.
Simply put:
People are running out of money to spend.
They used to go on road trips every day, now they take the subway.
They used to floor the accelerator in SUVs, now they’re researching fuel-saving modes.
This is obviously bearish for crude oil.
But here’s the problem—inventory is too low.
Global inventories are currently "looking stable, but actually very fragile."
As long as OPEC+ makes another statement like "continue to cut production," or if there’s a small friction in the Middle East, oil prices can spike again immediately.
So crude oil is now in a particularly magical phase:
Big bearish news can’t push prices down, but small bullish signals can cause a sharp rally.
What does this mean?
It shows that the market isn’t truly bearish.
Many institutions are now waiting for the "golden dip."
Because once the Fed’s rate cut expectations heat up, the dollar will fall, and funds will flow back into commodities.
At that point, crude oil might switch from "falling endlessly" to "crazy bull mode."
So I lean more towards:
Short-term volatility with a slight bias to the downside,
But the big drop is limited.
After all, low inventories and ongoing production cuts are the real trump cards.
The most terrifying thing about crude oil is:
It never moves in the direction most people expect.
When everyone on the internet is shouting collapse, it might already be preparing to rebound.
#WTI原油失守90美元