Crude oil suddenly plunges! Is this round of decline an opportunity or the "last chance to escape"?

After WTI falls below $90, the market instantly splits into two camps.
Bears say:
"Economy is weak, oil prices still need to fall!"
Bulls say:
"Inventories are so low, do you dare to really see a collapse?"
Both sides are now arguing like in the World Cup final.
Actually, the core logic of the current crude oil market is very clear:
Demand weakening VS supply tightening.
First, look at demand.
High interest rates have suppressed the global economy for too long.
US consumption is starting to cool down, European manufacturing is weak, and China's demand recovery is not as strong as expected.
So capital is beginning to worry:
Crude oil consumption growth may slow down.
This is the main reason for the recent oil price correction.
But the supply side is also very delicate.
OPEC+ continues to cut production, Russia's exports are unstable, and although the Middle East hasn't fully escalated, the tension remains.
More importantly:
Global inventories are not high.
So now, it’s actually very unlikely for oil prices to experience a true "collapse."
Because every time prices fall sharply, the market begins to worry about supply risks.
This forms a classic oscillation pattern:
When prices fall, people buy the dip;
When prices rise, people take profits.
And the US-Iran negotiations are more like a form of "strategic cooling."
Neither side wants to completely break relations, but they won't shake hands and make peace immediately.
The future is likely to be:
Continuous small frictions,
Lower probability of major conflicts.
So geopolitical risks will remain, but they won't keep pushing oil prices higher like before.
My judgment is:
In the short term, crude oil will be volatile, with limited room for a big drop.
The real factor deciding the direction is still the Federal Reserve.
If expectations of rate cuts heat up later, commodities are likely to strengthen again.
At that time, the current correction may be interpreted by the market as:
A "golden pit."
And the most classic phrase in the crude oil market is:
You think it’s over,
but actually, it’s just preparing to start the next act.
#WTI原油失守90美元