Recently, I've seen people again treat "increasing stablecoin supply = ETF off-exchange funds rushing into the market" as an iron law... Frankly, this correlation is quite tempting, but it doesn't necessarily mean causation. An increase in stablecoins might just indicate that everyone is doing on-chain arbitrage, hedging, or simply shifting risk into a "more stable-looking" shell, which has nothing to do with whether they are buying spot assets or not.

Some people are also watching extreme funding rates, and the community is arguing fiercely: is it a reversal or just more bubble squeezing? I prefer to ask first: are these funds meant for long-term allocation or short-term leveraged trading? Without clarifying this, it's easy to mistake noise for signals.

I personally treat it as a form of "backup": leaving a few possibilities open, not relying on a single indicator as the main hard drive. If the protocol hides risks too deeply, I’d rather earn less than become the data that can’t be recovered. That’s all for now.