#成长值抽奖赢金条 Triple bearish signals trigger market panic

1. The Fed's hawkish expectations completely reverse hopes for rate cuts

Latest data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce on May 28 shows that the overall PCE price index in April rose to 3.8% year-on-year, marking the largest increase in nearly three years; the core PCE index excluding food and energy also rose to 3.3%, both well above the Fed's 2% target. This inflation report has thoroughly shattered market expectations of rate cuts within the year.

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard explicitly stated that relying on AI-driven productivity boosts to solve inflation is "dangerous." Currently, the interest rate swap market indicates that market expectations for a rate cut by the Fed within the year have largely dissipated, with a 60% chance of a rate hike before the end of the year. The high-interest environment significantly reduces the appeal of non-yielding assets like Bitcoin, as funds continue to flow from risk assets into the dollar and government bonds for safety.

2. Escalating geopolitical tensions heighten risk aversion

U.S.-Israel military actions against Iran continue to impact global financial markets. Reports indicate that the U.S. military recently launched a new round of strikes on Iranian military facilities near the Strait of Hormuz. The escalation of geopolitical conflicts has triggered a global risk-off wave. Traditional safe-haven assets such as gold and the dollar index have risen, while cryptocurrencies, as high-risk assets, have been among the first to be sold off.

3. Continuous outflow of ETF funds and market liquidity drying up

Bitcoin spot ETFs, after experiencing a peak in capital inflows earlier this year, have recently seen continuous outflows. Meanwhile, Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin and altcoin spot trading volumes have fallen to their lowest levels since November 2023. In a low-liquidity environment, moderate selling pressure can trigger significant price volatility.

Even more concerning is that the upcoming U.S. Treasury debt operations are expected to withdraw $150 billion in liquidity from the financial system over the next week, which will further pressure all risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.