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Most people think the crypto four-year cycle means: halving happens. Bitcoin goes up. Altcoins go insane. Everyone gets rich. Then we crash.
That’s the children’s book version. Here's the harsh reality. The actual cycle is about liquidity, positioning, pain, time, disbelief, expansion, excess and eventually punishment.
Markets don’t just go up because enough days have passed since the last bear market. They go up when enough bad positioning has been flushed, enough leverage has been reset, enough tourists have left, sentiment has properly died, enough supply has changed hands and enough time has passed for people to stop caring.
That’s the part nobody likes. A proper bull market needs a proper reset (we are in that right now). You can’t have euphoria every six months. You can’t have generational opportunities without generational boredom. You can’t have another sustained move higher if the market never returns to fair value, never consolidates, never punishes late buyers and never forces people to question whether the whole thing is over again.
Everyone says they want another bull market. Most people are not emotionally prepared for what creates one.