Recently, I saw someone compare stablecoin supply curves to ETF net inflows, saying "money is coming in, so prices are rising," and I just want to roll my eyes... Correlation does not equal causation.


Often, the increase in stablecoins is just market making / cross-exchange arbitrage / hedging reserves, or even just shell swapping (moving USDT/USDC back and forth), not necessarily real cash flowing into the market; the same goes for ETFs—subscription and redemption rhythms are quite different from secondary market sentiment, with a bunch of friction costs and hedging positions in between.
I personally trust more the on-chain signals I can see: whether large inflows are accompanied by short positions, whether OTC addresses are making batch payments, and whether borrowing rates suddenly tighten... these are more reliable than drawing causality from two lines.
By the way, the "attention mining" and fan token schemes—listening to the hype—are interesting, but whether attention can be stably monetized, who will take the final baton, I just see it as noise for now.
Just playing devil's advocate—what indicators do you think count as footprints of "real off-chain funds"?
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