Bitcoin 4 years rhythm still playing out , Says Crypto CEO

According to Cowen, Bitcoin’s run-up to $126,200 in October 2025 landed within the expected cycle window when measured from the previous low to the high. That kind of timing at the top, he argues, makes it harder to dismiss the same framework when looking at where the bottom might land.

Past cycles put their lows in the closing months of the midterm year — December 2018 and November 2022, specifically. Based on that pattern, Cowen believes the bottom is still ahead, likely toward the end of 2026.

Two charts he shared support the view. One tracks the return on investment from the market cycle peak to the bear market low. The other tracks the multiplier from bear market lows to the next bull market peak. Both are following the shape of prior cycles, even if the raw numbers are smaller this time around.

When The Drop Could Come

Cowen had previously flagged May and June as the window when the next significant decline would begin. He expects that move to carry Bitcoin below the February 6 low of $60,000 — a level that a number of other analysts have called the cycle bottom.

Not everyone sees another drop coming. Analyst Sykodelic has predicted Bitcoin will climb past $90,000 in June after retesting a key level of support.

The debate reflects a broader split in how analysts are reading the market right now. Cowen’s position rests on the idea that the four-year cycle, tied to Bitcoin’s halving schedule, continues to drive price behavior in a predictable way despite the asset’s growth and changing market structure.