After Wall Street takes over Bitcoin, where can retail investors go to make money?

Author: Stacy Muur, crypto KOL, founder of Green Dot; Translation: @金色财经xz

Currently, there is a narrative in the crypto space that almost every analyst is telling in the same way. Wall Street is taking over, ETFs and stablecoins are pulling capital into traditional finance, and the era of "easy money" where buying a meme coin could yield 10 to 100 times returns has structurally ended. This narrative only captures half of what is actually happening.

Bitcoin and stablecoins are indeed becoming products of Wall Street, but the rest of the crypto space has not been absorbed along with them. Some are simply fading away on their own, while others—quietly—are becoming the best places for retail investors to actually make money over the next six to twelve months. The real issue is that most people are trying to figure out their positioning but are looking at the wrong market.

Overview:

Bitcoin and stablecoins now belong to Wall Street. They have become real, stable institutional-grade products, but no longer are the places where retail investors can achieve life-changing returns.

GameFi, NFTs, and most memecoins are dying out, not because of Wall Street—because their underlying economic models have failed.

Prediction markets are the true retail story of this cycle. Polymarket’s monthly trading volume grew from $1.2 billion in 2025 to $25.7 billion in March 2026, expanding 21 times in one year.

DeFi yields are becoming boring in a "good way." Liquidity staking offers 4‑8% APY, regulated stablecoin platforms offer 5‑8%, and both returns seem sustainable rather than speculative.

The probability of a full 2021-style retail bull market is about 30%, with sideways trading being a more likely outcome. In such an environment, what you hold matters far more than the overall market trend.

1. Bitcoin and stablecoins now belong to Wall Street

Since the launch of Bitcoin ETFs, they have absorbed $59 billion. The amount of Bitcoin bought daily by institutions exceeds the daily mined supply. MicroStrategy alone holds over 800k BTC.

Stablecoins are even more deeply integrated. Their supply reached $315 billion in Q1. They now account for 75% of all crypto market trading volume. Once the CLARITY bill passes, regulated banks will directly issue stablecoins.

This is real and permanent. But it’s no longer the place for retail investors to get 10x or 100x returns. Buying Bitcoin through brokers provides a clean, stable exposure. The crazy rallies, airdrops, pre-sales, and high-yield farms that defined past cycles are no longer part of this packaged environment.

2. GameFi, NFTs, and memecoins are dying on their own

GameFi is essentially over. About 93% of projects have failed. Axie Infinity—once a flagship during the 2021 boom—has plummeted from 2.7 million daily active users at its peak to around 5,500 now. GameFi didn’t fail because of Wall Street; it failed because of its own design. "Play-to-earn" only works when new users keep entering and paying old users; once growth stalls, the entire token economy collapses.

NFTs are at multi-year lows. As of March 2026, monthly sales dropped to $105.9 million, the lowest since April 2021. A few blue-chip series still trade, but most NFTs have lost nearly all value, with little to no trading activity. The stories that should have driven long-term adoption—NFTs as digital identity, NFTs as in-game assets—have never truly scaled.

Memecoins refuse to fully die, but data shows it’s bad for retail. The sector still produces short-term spikes—earlier this year, market cap surged 23% in a week—but the real issue is who is trading. On-chain data shows KOLs and whales dominate most trading volume, meaning late-stage retail participants are mainly transferring their money to early insiders during viral waves.

All three are not issues of being absorbed. They have exhausted the new user base that could have driven growth, and the narratives that fueled their rise in 2021 have lost their appeal. This is a completely different problem from traditional finance integration and requires entirely different answers.

3. Where do retail investors have a chance?

(1) Prediction markets

Prediction markets have built the strongest retail user base in crypto. Polymarket’s monthly trading volume grew from $1.2 billion in 2025 to $25.7 billion in March 2026—an expansion of 21 times in one year. Active wallets exceed 1.29 million. Most users trade less than $10k, proving they are genuine retail, not disguised institutions.

User engagement is also deepening. Average active days per user increased from 2.5 to 9.9 days. They’re not just clicking and leaving.

Why does this still work even when memecoin speculation fails? Because prediction markets have practical uses beyond gambling. People want to know what will happen in the world. The value of the data itself surpasses the trading activity. This demand won’t deplete like meme hype. Bernstein predicts that by the end of this year, annual trading volume will reach $240 billion, and by 2030, $1 trillion.

(2) DeFi yields

Total value locked (TVL) in DeFi is below its peak but stabilizing. The April KelpDAO exploit affected sentiment, but yield infrastructure remains operational.

Current practical yield options include:

• Liquidity staking: 4‑8% APY;

• Stablecoin yields on regulated platforms: 5‑8%;

• RWA-backed lending.

This is no longer 2020. Those 1,000% APY farms are gone. The remaining yields are smaller, more sustainable, and accessible to ordinary people. It’s actually more cost-effective than it sounds.

(3) Altcoins (assuming Bitcoin hits new all-time highs)

The altcoin season index is currently at 37. To reach a true altcoin season, it needs to hit 75. We are not there yet.

If Bitcoin breaks its all-time high in Q3, the index could rise. In that case, the best holdings would be ETH, Base ecosystem tokens, and Solana assets with real user bases. If you can handle due diligence, AI-crypto and DePIN presales have asymmetric upside potential.

This is about positioning, not certainty.

4. What’s next?

The next six months could unfold in three scenarios:

Bull market (30%): Federal Reserve cuts rates, Bitcoin breaks $110k, CLARITY bill passes. All possible, but unlikely to happen simultaneously—that’s the challenge.

Sideways market (45%): Bitcoin trades between $70k and $95k. Prediction markets continue to grow. DeFi remains stable. Altcoins only rise on specific news, not collectively.

Bear market (25%): Inflation resurges, Fed hikes rates again, Bitcoin drops to $50,000–$60k. Retail funds flow into ETFs, everything else loses out.

Honestly, the most likely outcome isn’t a big retail bull run but a sideways market—where what you hold matters far more than the market itself. This is a completely different game from the past two cycles.

5. How to operate?

Focus your time on prediction markets. This is currently the only retail vertical in crypto still growing. Genuine users are entering and returning regularly, and platforms offer more than trading—more practical features—so growth will continue.

Use DeFi for stable income, not big gains. Liquidity staking offers 4‑8% yields, regulated stablecoin platforms offer 5‑8%. These returns are small but reliable, and you can earn them without taking huge risks.

Only buy altcoins with real user support. Stick to tokens within Ethereum and Solana ecosystems that have actual products. Don’t buy a basket of random altcoins just to gamble on altcoin season, as that strategy has failed this cycle.

Stay away from GameFi, random NFTs, and new memecoins. These won’t revive in the next six to twelve months. The problem isn’t the market cycle but their initial design—waiting won’t fix that.

6. Conclusion

The narrative of “TradFi swallowing crypto” explains Bitcoin and stablecoins’ current state but doesn’t explain why GameFi, NFTs, and memecoins are dying—they each have their own reasons. At the same time, this narrative overlooks the parts of the market that are actually growing: prediction markets, DeFi yields, and carefully selected altcoins.

The era of simply buying a meme coin for 100x returns is over. The remaining opportunities are smaller, more selective, and require higher standards. You must truly understand what you’re doing.

For those who can do that, the next six to twelve months are not the end but just another version of making money in crypto.