#24h加密合约清算破4亿美元 Last night's geopolitical black swan attack, with the US and Iran situation rapidly escalating—US military actions in southern Iran and the White House's direct denial of the memorandum created a double blow, directly triggering a surge in the crypto market, with over $407 million liquidated across the entire network in 24 hours, nearly 100k investors forced to liquidate, among which long positions accounted for over 80%.

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1️⃣ Recent Trading Review: Details of Doing Right and Doing Wrong

As a disciplined trader, the experiences of the past 24 hours are deeply memorable:

Things done well: Over the past week, after observing clear signals such as ETH dominance dropping below 10% and whales continuously adding short positions, I had already reduced leverage to below 2x, setting stop-loss lines near $75,500 for BTC and $2,050 for ETH. Last night, after the US-Iran news fermented, the stop-loss orders were triggered immediately, and losses were strictly controlled within 1.8% of the account.

The mistake I most want to avoid: Impulsive bottom-fishing against the trend: When BTC quickly dipped to $74,800, my first reaction was actually "it's enough of a drop, time to buy the dip," but I repeatedly reminded myself to stay disciplined, which kept me from acting on it. Data shows that such emotions cause many retail traders to quickly switch to a "buy on dips" mode during sharp declines, but Santiment research points out that overly optimistic retail sentiment often indicates the market hasn't truly bottomed out yet. Genuine bottom-fishing opportunities usually appear after market panic and despair.

Areas for improvement: Not anticipating the "double-layer blow" from the news—first, the attack news triggered panic, then the White House's denial of the memorandum completely shattered the peace expectations, leading to deeper sell-offs. If I had incorporated the risk warning around the options expiry (Deribit’s nearly $6.25 billion contracts expiring on May 29) and the PCE data release on Friday, the response could have been more composed.

2️⃣ Current Strategy: Bottom-fishing or Holding Positions?

Clear conclusion: It is recommended to prioritize holding positions and keep cash buffers.

Why not blindly bottom-fish?

1. Geopolitical risks are not fully priced in: The US-Iran situation remains high-tension, with the White House taking a tough stance, Trump emphasizing "a complete victory in military operations against Iran" and clearly stating "even if Iran abandons high-enriched uranium, sanctions will not be lifted." Such geopolitical shocks force risk assets to rapidly de-leverage, and the correlation between cryptocurrencies and traditional safe-haven assets is being re-evaluated in real time.
2. Institutional selling pressure persists: Spot Ethereum ETFs experienced a net outflow of $401.62 million in May, the largest monthly institutional sell-off since listing. Meanwhile, a whale codenamed "Evaded" opened a short position of 12,600 ETH with 25x leverage, and another whale, silent for two years, exited after stop-loss—consistent exit of large holders is a clear warning sign.
3. Market logic has not yet bottomed: There are two major macro risks in the next 48 hours—on May 29, Deribit’s approximately $6.25 billion options expiry, which strongly incentivizes market makers to guide prices; and on May 30, the April PCE inflation report will be released. If inflation data exceeds expectations, the increased probability of rate hikes will further tighten liquidity.

If entry is absolutely necessary, remember these three principles:

1. Never use high leverage—liquidation data shows over 80% of liquidations come from long positions, and leverage is the biggest enemy at this moment.
2. Place orders in batches, don’t guess the bottom—e.g., set buy orders at $72,000, $70,000, and $68,000 for BTC to avoid "catching the middle of the mountain" all at once.
3. Wait for confirmation signals on the right side—at least wait for the daily close to stabilize above key support levels (such as ETH $2,000, BTC $75,000), or after clear easing statements on geopolitical tensions before making decisions.

As top traders say: "In panic markets, cash is the strongest belief." Preserve your principal, patiently wait for the real panic bottom to appear, which is far better than emotionally fighting against the trend and "taking the hit."