Recently, I keep seeing screenshots of "whale addresses buying again," and then I want to follow the trades. To be clear, first figure out whether they are building a position or hedging; otherwise, you might think they are bottom-fishing, but they might just be holding spot to suppress the price, while opening a reverse position on perpetuals, so the net position hasn't actually changed much... Looking on-chain seems lively, but a wallet move could also be just swapping collateral, adding margin, or even preparing to accept a liquidation.

My current habit is: when I see large inflows/outflows, I don't get excited right away. I check the time period, whether there's continuity, whether the position is "getting heavier," and then look at whether the borrowing interest rate curve suddenly twists. When interest rates jump first and liquidation risk rises, many "whale operations" actually look more like risk reduction, not champagne popping.

Over on Layer 2, they argue daily about TPS, fees, and subsidies, and it's quite noisy, but I care more about whether, when emotions are running high, the on-chain leverage is also piling up... Take it slow, rely on habits, not talent. That's all for now.