Brothers, do you think predicting the market relies on courage and luck?

Most prediction market projects make one mistake—being overly confident and jumping in directly without even backtesting.
The odds fluctuations in prediction markets are much more volatile than in the crypto world because event outcomes are binary—either 0 or 1—unlike crypto prices which have inertia to follow.
If you don’t quantify, you run; winning is luck, losing is inevitable.
I have a buddy in my circle who seriously backtested the odds for the DRX vs. BNX match, placing a long order at 34 cents—resulting in BNX winning the second game, and the odds jumping directly to 55 cents.
He later said: the backtest helped him find that window where the odds were underestimated.
Polymarket Strategy Backtester, GitHub 475 stars, inputs your strategy to automatically run historical backtests, with annualized return / Sharpe ratio exported with one click.
Brothers, prediction markets are not about gambling, but about calculation.