#TradFi交易分享挑战 US Tech Space Stock ASTS: Surged 17% in Two Days, How to Value It in the Future?

According to the latest S-1 filing submitted by SpaceX to the SEC, AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) is explicitly listed as a direct competitor in the satellite direct-to-device (D2D / Starlink Mobile) business.
This disclosure provides strong market validation for the entire D2D track.
According to SpaceX's own disclosures, the global total addressable market (TAM) for Starlink Mobile is as high as $740 billion, while the TAM for Starlink broadband is $870 billion, with both combined connecting business TAM approaching $1.6 trillion. SpaceX’s connectivity business is performing strongly. SpaceX’s current revenue from connectivity (mainly Starlink) is about $11.4 billion annually, with an EBITDA profit margin of up to 63%, demonstrating high profitability.
ASTS’s Unique Positioning
ASTS is currently the only listed pure D2D satellite communication company, focusing on providing direct satellite broadband connections to ordinary smartphones (no dedicated hardware needed).
In contrast, SpaceX has invested heavily in this market (including high-cost areas like spectrum), but ASTS has secured a scarce position with multiple first-mover advantages:
- On-orbit and in-production BlueBird satellites (Block 2 series already entering mass launch phase)
- Proven satellite direct-to-device performance - custom ASIC chips - approximately $3.5 billion in cash reserves
- $1.2 billion in signed commercial orders - over 60 operator partners (including collaborations/joint ventures with major US operators)
- Low-frequency spectrum advantage (stronger indoor penetration)
Current valuation: ASTS stock price is about $106, with a market cap of approximately $41 billion, only about 5.5% of SpaceX’s disclosed Starlink Mobile TAM.

Market Share Scenario Analysis (Hypothetical Reference)
Assuming ASTS successfully achieves large-scale commercialization and maintains high profit margins, estimated at a 15x price-to-sales (PS) ratio:
- 1% market share (corresponding to about $74 billion in revenue): market cap around $111 billion (about 2.7 times current)
- 2% market share: market cap around $178 billion (about 4.3 times current)
- 3% market share: market cap around $222 billion (about 5.4 times current)
These scenarios are based on optimistic commercialization assumptions and operator revenue-sharing models; actual results depend on execution capability.

Recent Catalysts
This week and the next two weeks: institutions and investment banks will deeply analyze SpaceX’s S-1, and D2D valuation models are expected to incorporate ASTS as a comparable company for the first time.
Mid-June: ASTS BlueBird satellites 8-10 are planned to be launched via Falcon 9.
During Russell Index adjustments and SpaceX roadshows, attention to the aerospace and satellite communication sectors is expected to significantly increase.

Risk Warning
Although prospects are broad, ASTS remains a high-risk, high-uncertainty investment.
Key challenges include:
- Mass satellite launch and deployment progress
- Regulatory approvals and international spectrum coordination
- Intense competition with giants like SpaceX
- Potential financing dilution
Success hinges on execution—satellite deployment speed, commercial contract landing, and network performance delivery—not just TAM narratives.

Summary:
SpaceX’s S-1 injects strong endorsement into the D2D track, highlighting ASTS’s scarcity as the only listed pure player and its early-stage characteristics.
In the context of sector enthusiasm, ASTS is expected to benefit, but investors should remain cautious.$ASTS