Based on recent conditions, key points are not functioning properly; at least consider extending the space by $100, with 4380 corresponding to 4280, and 4280 just happens to be the lower boundary of the weekly chart pattern.

This week, starting from confirming resistance at 4580 twice, then initiating a decline, has both similarities and key points:

Key point: Watching for an acceleration after holding high and breaking low; if the rebound does not break the previous high, then after the second confirmation of the decline point, breaking the low.

Similar point: Initiating a decline, dropping more than $100, adjusting at the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, then dropping another $100, adjusting again at the 0.5 Fibonacci level, then continuing with the next drop exceeding $100.

Coincidentally, today’s Thursday Asian session price fell from 4466 to 4366, a $100 move.

Next, we need to consider the rhythm of the decline, approaching it in two steps:

1. Continuing the decline, with a weak rebound unlikely, but if a strong rebound occurs, consider a sweep; 4400 is the optimal resistance point. After resistance, break the low, targeting the previous low around 4350, then 4330, and the next key zone at 4300-4280.

2. Adjusting the decline: as mentioned above, focus on the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level; cycle without breaking the previous major starting point, then initiate the next move exceeding $100.

There are many points to consider here. We choose to comprehensively analyze the adjustment points at 4444-4454, which also align with the pressure line in the chart, using this as resistance before looking for a breakdown.

Currently, we lean more toward the first scenario of continued decline. A direct drop has the advantage of clarifying the situation, allowing us to seize lower levels.

Following this approach, we have already entered short positions in the 4398-4388 range. The earlier the Asian session drops, the better, as it favors a downward move for the bears.

Hesitating without a decline, besides considering the cycle at the 0.5 retracement level, we also need to consider a reversal against the wind, which has been common recently. After all, the larger cycle is still in a sweeping phase, with a range of about $200-$300.

After the weekly chart drops back below the critical support, it has been three weeks of sweeping around 4770-4500. Currently, the sweep is centered around 4580 downward, with this week being the second week, sweeping the space from 4580 to 4200.

This is crucial to remember on the larger cycle. On the smaller cycle, focus remains on defending high and low points. Today’s Asian session already broke the low; the next focus is on holding the high. The key is breaking the low and continuing, maintaining rhythm, holding high points, and gradually moving downward.

Following this approach, the plan is as follows:

1. Currently holding short positions in the 4398-4388 range, watch for a move down to 4365, then 4355, and below 4330.

2. Adjusting the decline: focus on resistance around 4444-4454, using the non-break of the high as a defense, and watching for a sweep-style breakdown accelerating the decline.