GUAUSDT Perp — Trade Plan

$GUA ‌
Situation Summary
This token just crashed ~75% in under 24 hours (1.48 → 0.22). Price is now bouncing at 0.37524, but the chart is still deeply bearish structurally.
Key Levels
Level
Price
Current Price
0.37524
24h Low (Support)
0.22622
Bollinger Mid (Resistance)
0.62312
SuperTrend (Resistance)
0.75920
Spot Price
0.52778
Bearish Signals 🔴
Price far below SuperTrend (0.759) — strong downtrend
Price below Bollinger mid band — momentum is down
MACD deeply negative (DIF: -0.225)
Big perp discount vs spot (0.375 vs 0.528) — negative sentiment, likely negative funding
Volume spike confirms panic sell, not a healthy bottom
Mild Bullish Signals 🟡
Bounced off 0.226 low with some consolidation
MACD DIF slightly above DEA — very early possible cross
Turnover picking up on small green candles
Trade Scenarios
Scenario A — Short Bounce Trade (High Risk)
Entry: 0.37–0.39 (current range)
Target 1: 0.46–0.48
Target 2: 0.52 (spot price fill)
Stop Loss: below 0.22 (below 24h low)
R:R: ~1:2 if tight stop
Scenario B — Wait & Short on Rejection
Wait for price to retest 0.52–0.62 (spot price / Bollinger mid)
Short if rejection candle forms there
Target: retest of 0.22 or lower
This is the higher-probability setup given the trend
Recommendation
⚠️ Do not chase longs here. The risk/reward for a long is poor unless you're scalping with a very tight stop. The dominant trend is down hard. The safer play is waiting for a dead-cat bounce into 0.52–0.62 and shorting the rejection.
This is not financial advice. Crypto perpetuals carry extreme risk, especially after crashes like this.