Recently, I came across a “three-in-a-row” chart based on stablecoin supply, ETF net subscriptions, and OTC capital inflows—then a line like “money is coming, so prices are going up.” To put it bluntly, correlation isn’t causation… If stablecoins are higher, it could also mean everyone first changes into a “wait and see” posture. Over in the ETF side, there can be rebalancing and hedging, and even just delayed arbitrage demand—circling around on-chain, it just looks lively. If you really want to pin down causality, you have to spell out the time order, the concrete execution path, and who is actually buying; otherwise, it’s like those small reorganizations I’ve seen—on the surface it’s just a single candlestick, but underneath, it’s all sorts of messy reasons piling up.

Airdrop season is also pretty similar: the more task platforms become more anti-bot (“anti–witch-fraud”) and keep rolling out points-based systems, the more the “freebie-hunting” crowd competes and grinds like showing up for work and clocking in. Once the data looks good, people assume it means “real user growth,” but that may not be the case either. Anyway, I’d rather make fewer guesses and watch for a few more days to see how on-chain funds flow back. Forget it—let’s not talk about it for now.