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Federal Reserve's Goolsbee: Rising AI productivity expectations combined with rising oil prices may force central banks to raise interest rates

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Golden Finance reports that on May 28, Chicago Federal Reserve Chairman Goolsby further reinforced his warning on Thursday: as market expectations that artificial intelligence could boost productivity keep heating up, it may drive up inflation and force the Federal Reserve and other central banks to raise interest rates. Goolsby said, “The stronger the hype about future productivity, the higher interest rates may need to be to prevent the economy from overheating. More importantly, in the short term, facing supply shocks—whether from oil prices, supply chain disruptions, or other factors—will make the problem worse.” The above remarks further expanded on the view Goolsby first publicly raised earlier this month. At the time, he questioned the claim that artificial intelligence can curb inflation, thereby creating room for central banks to cut rates—an argument promoted by many officials in the Trump administration and by the newly appointed Federal Reserve Chair Wos. In the 1990s, as computers became more widely adopted, U.S. productivity unexpectedly rose, driving rapid economic growth without triggering inflation. But Goolsby believes that if productivity gains are already in line with what the market expects, the outcome would be different. The market may kick off a spending rush in advance, pushing up prices before the actual productivity improvement is realized. (Jin10)
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