#波浪理论 #Bitcoin

Any trend is probabilistic; I still lean towards $60k being the bottom. Currently, it's in the early stage of an upward move, but MicroStrategy has recently spent too much cash reserves to pay off debt early, leaving only nine months of cash reserves, which could trigger a liquidity crisis and lead to selling coins. This is a hidden risk point. I'll briefly discuss both wave scenarios.
📉 Bearish projection: consolidation of decline, testing lower support
If we consider Bitcoin's movement since reaching a high of about $126,200 in October 2025 as a complete correction cycle, then the logic of dropping to $56,000 is valid.
* C wave incomplete or entering the fifth wave: The C wave decline starting from $97,924 has not fully ended near $60,000, or the market is in the "fifth wave" main decline of a bearish five-wave structure.
* Breaking previous lows: Under this pessimistic wave projection, the $60,000 level will be broken, and the price will continue downward to find stronger technical support levels. Based on Fibonacci retracement and other technical indicators, the potential target zone for this deep correction is between $55,759 and $56,000.
📈 Bullish/sideways projection: correction ending, bottom already in
I feel the most dangerous downward phase has already passed.
* ABC three-wave correction completed: The daily-level correction starting from $126,200 has completed a full ABC three-wave structure, with the C wave low near $60,000 (occurring in early February 2026).
* New upward wave starting point: The rebound from $60,000 to now belongs to the initial wave (Wave I) of a new upward trend. As long as subsequent pullbacks do not fall below the previous low of $60,000, the overall structure remains bullish or wide-ranging sideways, rather than continuing downward.
💡 Market signals overview
Besides pure wave patterns, current market signals also show a mix of bullish and bearish indicators:
* Bottoming signals: Historically, when the market experiences extreme panic and volatility spikes (such as during the recent dip to the $60,000 level), it often corresponds to a phase bottom. Additionally, data shows that "whale" addresses have started accumulating at lows, which is usually seen as a sign of exhausted selling pressure and a short-term bottom.
* Risks still exist: Despite bottoming signs, large-scale institutional capital inflows have not been fully confirmed. Without new incremental funds entering, the market could retest or even briefly break through key support levels again.
Anyway, I feel like $60,000 or $56,000 doesn't matter anymore.
By the way, that British guy from yesterday who looks most like Bitcoin's founder said that quantum computing is basically garbage at the moment, and the community need not panic. 😄