Recently, the group has been talking again about "stablecoin supply increase = ETF funds entering the market = about to take off," and I can't help but roll my eyes... Correlation can be very deceiving. An increase in stablecoins might mean someone is minting coins to buy, or it could just be market making, cross-exchange arbitrage, or even project teams paying wages; it doesn't necessarily mean someone pressed the buy button. As for ETFs, behind the net subscriptions/redemptions are a bunch of hedging and substitute positions—basically, what you see is the result, not the motivation.

In the past, I liked to focus on various curves and push causal relationships hard, but now I’ve gotten used to asking first: where is the money coming from, where is it going, and are there middlemen earning spreads? Recently, comparing RWA, US Treasury yields, and on-chain yield products together is quite funny; the yields look similar, but the sources of risk are completely different... Don’t assume they’re the same just because the graphs look alike. For now, I’ll keep watching how proposals frame their interests as “reasonable and justified.”