#24h加密合约清算破4亿美元 Will Bitcoin's historical trend repeat? Analysts warn: the bottom may fall below 50k

Bitcoin shows a monthly momentum signal, which appears near several major cycle lows, indicating that the current correction may be entering its final stage. This setup is based on the monthly logarithmic MACD histogram, which previously formed bottoms only when the red histogram bars weakened for at least two consecutive months. The same signal may now reappear, but there is an important caveat.
Bitcoin MACD repeating bottom pattern The technical outlook here is based on the monthly candlestick chart timeframe, but May is not yet over. After failing to hold above the $80,000 region (which was briefly broken earlier this month), Bitcoin is still trading in a fragile zone below $76,000.
Crypto analyst Washigorira’s technical analysis focuses on a simple but historically significant feature on Bitcoin’s monthly logarithmic MACD histogram: two consecutive light red bars. In past cycles, deep red bars indicated increasing downward momentum, while light red bars signaled weakening selling pressure.
This pattern has also appeared during previous Bitcoin bottoms. Similar MACD indicator shifts occurred during the 2012 and 2015 bear market bottoms, the 2019 cycle reset, and the recovery phase from late 2022 to early 2023. In each case, Bitcoin did not surge immediately after the first lighter red candlestick appeared, but the signal indicated that sellers were losing control within the monthly timeframe.
The true signal comes from the closing price in May
The same pattern seems to be forming again. Bitcoin’s monthly MACD histogram turned deep red in September 2025, but in April 2026, the first lighter red bar appeared since then, indicating that bearish momentum is beginning to weaken. May is still ongoing, and the outcome is yet to be seen.
If the price closes lower for a second consecutive candlestick this month, the previous trend could repeat, and Bitcoin’s bottom may have already formed. “If history always repeats itself, then perhaps the worst decline is behind us,” Washigorira notes. On the other hand, if the close remains weak and the histogram turns back to deep red, it would delay the signal and maintain a bearish outlook. Bitcoin’s short-term price action is bouncing between rebounds and weakness, and the final May close remains uncertain. The cryptocurrency still hovers above the panic low of $74,000 but has struggled to return to the $80,000 region this month. Currently, Bitcoin faces outflows from spot Bitcoin ETF funds and subdued demand on crypto exchanges. However, these factors do not necessarily invalidate the technical histogram pattern tracked by Washigorira. The bearish interpretation is that this pattern may still have one last downward wave before confirming a bottom. Some technical analysts warn that Bitcoin’s price could still fall below $50k.