Recently, I’ve been looking at the copper commodity and noticed an interesting phenomenon. Copper is called “Doctor Copper,” and there’s a reason for that: its price trend almost perfectly reflects the real state of the global economy. Unlike gold—which is mainly a safe-haven asset—silver is half industrial and half safe haven. Copper is 99% driven by industrial demand, and that determines that its price-movement logic is completely different.

This year, copper prices have been fluctuating in a high range, at about $12,000 to $13,000 per ton. Last year, the increase was over 40%. Many people ask me whether the copper bull market can continue. My view is that while short-term momentum is strong, the risk of overheating is definitely rising—but over the medium to long term, the real story is only just beginning.

Why do I say that? Electric vehicles, AI data centers, and green-energy power grids all have an appetite for copper that is astonishingly large. The amount of copper used per electric vehicle is 4 times that of a traditional fuel car. And a large AI data center—just its cooling systems and power distribution infrastructure—requires thousands of tons of copper. The surge in copper prices in 2025 is, in essence, the explosion of global electrification and digitalization demand, while supply can’t keep up.

What’s interesting is that the bottleneck on the supply side is even more severe than people imagine. Chile and Peru—two major copper-producing countries—are facing declining ore grades and social unrest. New mine development in the Congo has been delayed, and the release of new capacity in Indonesia is also very slow. On average, it takes 16.5 years from the discovery of a copper deposit to official commercial production. In other words, today’s price rise is really a “payback” for the underinvestment of the past decade. This kind of tight, mismatched supply situation—where there’s “a shortage both in green and yellow”—is the strongest fuel for pushing copper prices higher.

Institutional consensus on 2026 is remarkably consistent. JP Morgan estimates an average of $12,500 per ton, with a full-year target above $13,000. Goldman Sachs is even more bullish, expecting prices to hold above $12,000 over the next three months, $13,000 over six months, and potentially reach $15,000 within twelve months. UBS predicts an average of $12,800 and notes that the supply gap in the next 6 to 12 months could widen to over 400,000 tons. The logic behind all these forecasts points in one direction: structural demand driven by the green-energy transition and AI infrastructure.

That said, it’s important to note that this cycle may be right at the start of the fourth round of a super bull market. Looking back at history, copper has gone through three super cycles driven by global demand surges. In the electrification cycle of the 1900s, prices rose 10 times; in the post-war industrialization cycle of the 1960s, they rose 5 times; and in the urbanization cycle of the 2000s in China, they also rose 10 times. Today, the driving forces are green energy plus AI. S&P Global predicts that global copper demand will soar from 28 million tons to 42 million tons by 2040.

The key point is that turning these demands into actual refined copper and real-world applications takes time. Every high-speed cable connecting GPUs, and every substation that supports AI operations, requires massive amounts of copper. Demand can appear instantly, but supply is slow. This mismatch is exactly why super cycles can last for so long.

Of course, super cycles don’t move in a straight line upward. Even during China’s cycle from 2000 to 2011, copper prices have halved as early as 2008. Mid-cycle pullbacks of 20% to 40% are quite common, usually caused by macroeconomic recessions or short-term inventory releases. In the short term, if copper prices retreat to the $11,000 range, that could actually be an excellent point to add positions.

As for how to invest in copper, there are mainly three routes. Futures are suitable for experienced investors, traded on COMEX—offering leverage but also bringing delivery-related pressure. CFD products are more flexible: they allow two-way trading, have no expiration date, and can be traded 24 hours a day, making them much lower-barrier for retail investors. There are also copper-related ETFs and mining company stocks, which are suitable for people who prefer long-term investment and have a lower risk tolerance.

Overall, copper may face greater structural demand between 2026 and 2030. But you also need to be alert to risks: if the global economy slows down or breakthroughs in alternative material technologies occur, many infrastructure plans could be delayed, and copper prices might quickly pull back after breaking to new highs. For beginners, the key is to choose tools that match your own risk tolerance—not to blindly chase higher prices. This is a good time to observe and learn.