I just had an interesting conversation with my Polish neighbor about currency trading. He said I should be pessimistic about the złoty – current government, war risks, and so on. But as a trader, I approach it more methodically and look at the numbers.

So: Poland has been in the EU since 2004 but has not yet adopted the euro. That keeps the EUR-PLN pair tradable for us. Currently (May 2026), we get about 4.27 złoty per euro. At first glance, not exciting, but the chart shows interesting movements. After the Ukraine war, the euro rose but has been falling again for three years. That hints at something.

What really influences the złoty? There are six factors I look at more closely:

Inflation: Poland 2024 at 3.7%, estimated 3.6% for 2025, then 2.8% in 2026. The eurozone is significantly lower (2024: 2.4%, 2025: ~2.1%, 2026: 1.7%). This argues against the złoty.

Interest rates: Poland has the edge here. 4.75% in Poland versus 2.0% in the eurozone. Higher interest rates attract investors and support the currency. Similarly, the CHF/PLN pair could also be interesting – the Swiss franc with its stable interest rates against the złoty.

Government debt: Poland’s debt rose to over 416 billion euros by Q2 2025, a 3.3% increase from the previous quarter. That’s an upward trend to watch.

Political stability: The new government since December 2023 has support. The EU elections in 2024 showed gains for euroskeptic parties, but a pro-European majority remained.

GDP and labor market: Poland is growing at 3.5% (2025/2026), unemployment is at 3.1%. The eurozone? 1.2% growth in 2025, 1% in 2026, unemployment at 6.2%. Poland is significantly stronger.

War in Ukraine: It burdens both regions, but Poland bears it more as a direct neighbor. Millions of Ukrainian refugees, increased military spending. However, about 70% of Ukrainian refugees of working age are working in Poland – that helps the economy.

What does this mean for 2026? Analysts are divided. Some expect a drop to 4.20 EUR/PLN, others forecast up to 4.44. Erste Group says 4.30. My take: There are arguments for all directions. Higher Polish interest rates and better GDP growth support złoty strength. Lower inflation in the eurozone favors the euro. This could point to a sideways movement.

It’s also interesting that you can trade such pairs with different strategies. During sideways trends, go long at lows, exit at highs. Or play carry trades due to interest rate differentials. If you’re interested in other currency pairs – CHF/PLN could also be exciting, the franc is similarly stable as the euro but with different dynamics.

The fact is: this pair isn’t boring. During the year, significant fluctuations can occur. My neighbor wasn’t entirely wrong with his concern, but the złoty is much more stable than expected. If you trade here, be cautious, but there are definitely interesting setups. And honestly: it’s also just pretty cool to discuss such topics with Polish neighbors.