#TradFi交易分享挑战 World Platinum Investment Council: Iran conflict causes platinum market to see supply surplus for the first time in six quarters

The World Platinum Investment Council states that the Iran conflict has led to a supply surplus in the platinum market for the first time in six quarters. The organization says that in the first quarter of this year, affected by the Iran conflict, the platinum market experienced its first supply surplus in six quarters. Investment demand has shrunk, combined with high energy prices, increasing the likelihood of inflation and rate hikes.

Spot platinum prices surged 127% in 2025, reaching a historic high of $2,919 per troy ounce in January this year. Afterwards, the upward momentum driven by gold prices was insufficient, and platinum prices fell back to around $2,000. Additionally, at the end of February, Middle East conflicts erupted, and investors sold precious metals to cover margin calls.

In the first quarter, platinum market supply surplus was 268k ounces, compared to a deficit of 658k ounces in the same period last year. Market demand decreased by 31% year-on-year, down to 1.5 million ounces; net investment outflows were 225k ounces, and demand from automotive manufacturing and jewelry also weakened. Meanwhile, total platinum supply increased by 18% year-on-year to 1.7 million ounces. Last year, floods in South Africa severely impacted local platinum output, but this year's supply levels have rebounded.

The World Platinum Investment Council, citing data from Metal Focus Consulting, released a quarterly report stating that mine platinum production increased by 22%, and high market prices also boosted platinum recycling by 7%. The organization predicts that the current supply and demand trend will reverse, and the platinum market will remain in a state of deficit for the fourth consecutive year in 2026. The annual supply gap has been revised upward from the previous estimate of 240k ounces to 297k ounces. Regarding mining rights and investment mines, the "Kuangqi Tong" mini-program forecasts that in 2026, mine output will remain stable, platinum recycling is expected to increase by 9%, and overall supply will slightly rise by 2% to 7.4 million ounces. Demand for the year is expected to decrease by 9%, totaling 7.7 million ounces. Jewelry and investment demand will decline sharply by 12% and 54%, respectively, and automotive demand will fall by 2%. To fill the supply gap, unallocated inventories used for market regulation will decrease by 15%, down to 170,000 ounces, with stock levels insufficient to cover three months of global consumption. $XPTUSD