This morning, I first did the usual sweep of stablecoin supply and a few big inflows and outflows—the chart looked pretty clean, but the comment section has already started with “supply rising = time to pump” and “ETF money coming in = it’ll take off immediately”… To be blunt, the correlation is easy to spot, but proving causation is the hard part. The ETF side is more like an off-chain water faucet: whether it’s turned on, and how far it’s turned on, depends on timing and sentiment—not on a single on-chain line moving that you can just jump to conclusions from. I also checked the recent back-and-forth over L2 TPS, fees, and subsidies—things are getting loud—but what I fear most isn’t slowness, it’s chaos. Once rules and incentives get tangled up, even data that looks great can quickly turn into noise. In any case, I’ll jot it down first—don’t rush to imagine the storyline; have breakfast first.