Recently, I've seen a bunch of people linking stablecoin supply, ETF net inflows, and over-the-counter funds coming in as reasons for prices to go up or down. Basically, they treat correlation as causation, which sounds a bit shaky. An increase in stablecoins might just mean money is moving around on the chain; ETF inflows could be hedging other positions; if risk appetite in the US stock market shifts, the narrative immediately changes its skin, and everyone interprets it like weather forecasts.

As a fringe member of the DAO, I’ve seen too many proposals, and what I fear most is when everything looks correct on the surface—execution details all rely on guesswork: where does the money come from, how does it get in, is there a demand to take over after it comes in... Without breaking these down, just overlay a few curves and draw conclusions. Honestly, I don’t really buy it.

By the way, just to vent, when my partner saw a screenshot of ETF inflows, she asked if I should start buying again. I could only say: don’t rush, the market is best at telling two stories with the same set of data. That’s all for now.