I've noticed that West Texas Intermediate crude oil is rising strongly these days, and now it’s moving close to $72. The situation in the Middle East is significantly increasing pressure on prices – tensions between Iran, the United States, and Israel have escalated dramatically, and Iran has now announced a halt to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. This is a truly vital passage, passing more than 20% of global oil, so it's natural for supply concerns to increase.

The commodity attracted buyers during the Asian session and remained near its highest levels in months. But there are factors limiting the rise – firstly, OPEC+’s decision to increase production by 206,000 barrels per day acts as a downward pressure. Secondly, the US dollar is very strong right now due to the global safe-haven flight, and the Federal Reserve doesn’t seem to be easing policy strongly. A stronger dollar means higher oil prices in dollars become less attractive to other buyers.

The scene is complex – on one hand, geopolitical tensions boost prices, on the other hand, additional supplies and a strong dollar limit gains. The current balance seems very sensitive to any new developments in the region.