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Recently, some market signals are worth paying attention to. Reports from Trump’s side suggest a possible resumption of the “Freedom Plan” to help manage the flow of ships through the Strait of Hormuz, while US-Iran negotiations are also moving forward. These geopolitical developments are affecting both commodities and the foreign exchange market. On top of that, US April non-farm payrolls surged by 115k, showing strong labor market resilience, which further strengthens expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue to hold rates steady.
The gold market’s fast rebound pattern is still in place. On Friday, it touched $4,749 and then stabilized above $4,700. The AO indicator shows that bearish sentiment is strengthening, but it has not yet reversed. If it can hold above $4,700, there is a chance it could later rally toward $5,000 and even $5,200. Be careful, though: once it breaks below $4,560, you should watch for the risk of a drop toward $4,400. WTI crude oil fell 3% to $93.8. Overall, it has been consolidating in a narrow triangle range, and in the short term it may probe lower levels near $85.0. During this period, keep an eye on the two time windows of May 26 and June 10.
The US Dollar Index is showing something interesting. On Friday, it closed below the key support level of 98.0 for the first time, and it also broke below the Gann 2/1 line (98.5), suggesting it may be entering a turning point in a larger cycle. If it cannot regain 98.0 in the short term, a medium-term downtrend could start, with the next target at 95.2. The S&P 500 rose 0.84% to 7,401 points, but the RSI has already entered overbought territory, so investors should watch for a pullback and corrective adjustment after a sharp rally. The key support is at 7,300 points.