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I’ve been paying close attention to the new energy electric vehicle sector lately, and I’ve found that this wave is truly different. Unlike smartphones and computers—which are already saturated—the electric vehicle market is just getting started. All countries have clearly set timelines for banning the sale of fuel-powered vehicles, which means demand is there for the next few decades.
When it comes to China’s leading electric vehicle company, BYD, its performance in recent years is definitely worth watching. Having started out by making batteries as early as 1995, they later moved into the automotive industry, giving them a complete supply-chain advantage. In the first quarter of last year, sales growth exceeded 100%, far above Tesla’s 50%—and that’s not a small figure. Although Tesla still leads in global sales, in the Chinese market, BYD has firmly secured the top position.
I’ve noticed an interesting comparison. Tesla makes money with high gross margins (net profit margin of about 15%), but its market share has been gradually declining, especially in China where its performance has been weak. By contrast, although BYD’s profit per unit isn’t as high as Tesla’s, because it controls battery technology and has a complete supply chain, it’s actually more resilient to risks. Also, Warren Buffett has recently been reducing his holdings in BYD, which has made the stock relatively cheaper—so long-term investors may want to pay more attention.
Looking at the new forces in building cars, Li Auto has already begun to generate profits, while NIO and Xpeng are still burning cash. Li Auto focuses on a market around 350,000 RMB, supported by funding from Meituan; based on what it looks like right now, it appears to be the most pragmatic among the three.
But I have to be honest: this industry is now entering the knockout stage. Supply is already overabundant, and major automakers are slashing prices. Consumers don’t accept price increases, but raw material prices are rising. In this kind of bind, who can survive? It will depend on who can control the complete supply chain, who can manage costs, and who has the financial strength to make it through this round of war. BYD, the leading electric vehicle company in China, has a clear advantage here, and with it steadily pushing into overseas markets, the growth outlook for the next 3 to 5 years is indeed promising.
Another key point is intelligence and software-driven capability. Today, the ceiling for autonomous driving technology is Level 2, but there is huge room for integration at the intelligent platform level. Whoever can control that ecosystem will control the future. Overall, this industry fits Buffett’s “snowball theory”—enough wet snow plus a long enough slope. Investing in the electric vehicle sector could truly be an opportunity for the next ten years, or even several decades.