Is the agreement only 5% away? That 5% might be the moat that can’t be crossed.

U.S. officials say the framework agreement is 95% complete, and they are negotiating the “wording.” Fox News and The Washington Post both confirm that the two sides have reached agreement on “nuclear reserves” and the Strait of Hormuz issue.

But an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Bagheri, immediately poured cold water on it—although the two sides have reached consensus on most issues, “this does not mean that an agreement will be signed soon.” Why? Because the remaining 5% is the hardest part of the entire agreement.

First, the disposition of enriched uranium. The U.S. demands that Iran hand over weapons-grade enriched uranium, and Rubio says this is a “real, significant, and time-bound” negotiation. But Iran’s highest leader, Mujtaba, has explicitly ordered that it be banned from being exported; unless he himself withdraws this directive, no one may violate it. Between the leaders and the signing table, there is an unseen highest leader standing in the way.

Second, the order of sanctions relief. The U.S. insists on “trade action for easing”—Iran first makes substantive concessions, and then the U.S. will carry out asset unfreezing and lift sanctions. What Iran demands is synchronized action, and it even asks the U.S. to unfreeze some assets during the negotiation stage. This dispute over the sequence is a typical “trust deficit” problem, and it cannot be resolved in 5 days.

Third, the specific control details for the Strait of Hormuz. Although both sides agree in principle to open it, Iranian officials have clearly stated that “the management of the strait will not return to its pre-war state.” As for the details—who manages it and what the transit rules are—those could be debated for another month.

Historical experience tells us that the last 10% in negotiations often consumes 90% of the time. And now, the U.S. and Iran haven’t even started tackling that 10% yet, with only 5 days left. The 37% probability on Polymarket is already too high; my judgment: the chance of signing a comprehensive agreement before the end of May is still less than 25%. Bet “No.”

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