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It seems that gold is plummeting today, dropping more than 3% already. Because negotiations between the US and Iran appear to be making progress, investors are reducing risk from safe-haven assets like gold. Meanwhile, the dollar has strengthened to 97.25 on the DXY as I write.
But in reality, it's not just about geopolitics. Last week's ADP figures were stronger than expected, combined with an improving NY Empire State manufacturing index, leading the market to lower expectations for Fed rate cuts. Yesterday, traders priced in 62 basis points, but now it's down to only 57 basis points. The 10-year bond yield remains steady at 4.052%, putting pressure on gold, which has no yield.
From a technical perspective, XAU/USD has fallen below $4,900 and couldn't hold above $5,000. The six-day low is $4,841. If the decline extends below $4,800, the next support is the 50-day SMA at $4,632. Conversely, if it recovers above $5,000, watch for $5,100.