Should we keep negotiating or continue fighting? This is the biggest variable affecting the US stock market in the second half of the year.

Many people only focus on how much Micron’s stock price has risen, but ignore why it is rising. In addition to the long-term narrative of AI infrastructure, there is also a short-term catalyst: US-Iran peace talks.

In fact, the market already treats a peace agreement as something that will happen sooner or later. Some analysts have explicitly said that investors should not expect the agreement to immediately push the S&P 500 to 8,000, but as long as geopolitical disruptions are removed, the market can shift its attention back to fundamentals such as corporate earnings and economic growth. At present, Wall Street expects that corporate earnings for S&P 500 companies will grow by about 23% this year, and another 16% next year.

Of course, there are also more level-headed views. Northlight Asset Management’s Chief Investment Officer compared the current frenzy in tech stocks to the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s—back then, those people also firmly believed that the new economy could upend everything, but after the bubble burst, it took 25 years to pay off the debt. Now AI is indeed a real new technology that can generate revenue, but whether valuations are in a bubble is something no one can give a certain answer to.

From a strategy standpoint, I plan to continue holding positions in Micron and AMD this week. The key timing is early June—if the Strait of Hormuz really opens at that time, oil prices will keep falling, and the conditions for the Federal Reserve to cut rates will become more mature, which would provide stronger support for technology stocks. But if negotiations break down, the current optimism could reverse overnight. In this kind of uncertainty, I recommend that everyone not take on too much leverage. If you bet on geopolitics, no one can bet right.

#美光市值突破1万亿美元
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